Ratings 11/3/07
Just a couple of quick thoughts this week. First, congratulations to the Wahoos for another one-point win. Amazing! It does make it hard to figure out how good they are, though. Wake Forest is the second ACC team I've seen run off-tackle and settle for a 50-yard field goal attempt to win a game at the gun. Both missed. (Georgia Tech at Maryland was the other.) Is this really a good strategy?
Speaking of Clemson (I thought I was, with the main ideas being bad strategy and losing close games) I stumbled onto a nice mathematical paradox this week. The BCS uses the Harris Poll, the USA Today poll and the computers, averaged as equal thirds. So, Clemson is #20 in both the Harris and USA Today, and is #16 on the computers. Average those together and you get Clemson #21 in the BCS. Cute, isn't it? The explanation is that the "average" is not an average of the ordinal rankings but of the numbers that produced the rankings. One example: Hawaii is non-existent on the computers (they just cracked my top 50) but gets the same 0 computer points that #26 gets. Meanwhile, they rate high enough in the human polls (they are unbeaten, after all) to get enough poll points to reach #16 in the BCS.
The following predictions are straight from the ratings, with 4 points added for home field.
Virginia Tech over Florida State by 8 (can the Hokies lay some Beamer Ball on Wide Right U?)
Virginia over Miami by 4 (both Virginia teams favored over Florida teams? apocalyptic)
Clemson over Wake by 9 (Tigers are good, but can they beat a good team?)
Connecticut and Cincinnati even (important Big East game, but UConn/WV will be bigger)
Kansas over Oklahoma State by 7 (the Fat Man has KU putting up basketball scores)
Ohio State over Illinois by 15 (could be interesting if the Buckeyes are looking ahead to Meechigan)
Cal over Southern Cal by 2 (and yet more "End of the Dynasty" headlines if it happens)
Tennessee over Arkansas by 4 (the Vols try to retain their SEC East lead and keep the Hogs from running wild)
Florida over South Carolina by 4 (not the Big Game we expected, but Urban Ball Coaches are always fun)
Hawaii over Fresno State by 9 (Fresno's not terrible, but Hawaii is quite a road trip)
1 | LSU | 95.18 |
2 | Oregon | 94.80 |
3 | Ohio State | 92.50 |
4 | Oklahoma | 90.41 |
5 | Arizona St | 90.11 |
6 | Kansas | 89.78 |
7 | West Virginia | 89.29 |
8 | Florida | 89.26 |
9 | Missouri | 88.86 |
10 | Boston College | 87.48 |
11 | Georgia | 86.20 |
12 | S. Florida | 86.07 |
13 | Virginia Tech | 85.98 |
14 | Clemson | 85.43 |
15 | UConn | 85.28 |
16 | Michigan | 84.67 |
17 | Alabama | 84.36 |
18 | Kentucky | 83.87 |
19 | Southern Cal | 83.81 |
20 | Auburn | 83.56 |
21 | Penn State | 83.54 |
22 | Texas | 82.81 |
23 | Florida State | 81.95 |
24 | California | 81.75 |
25 | Tennessee | 81.69 |
26 | Virginia | 81.64 |
27 | Arkansas | 81.53 |
28 | Illinois | 81.06 |
29 | Cincinnati | 81.03 |
30 | S Carolina | 80.69 |
31 | Boise St | 80.50 |
32 | Wake Forest | 80.23 |
33 | Purdue | 80.11 |
34 | Kansas State | 78.97 |
35 | Wisconsin | 78.72 |
36 | Oklahoma St | 78.38 |
37 | N Iowa | 77.93 |
38 | Rutgers | 77.84 |
39 | Vanderbilt | 77.43 |
40 | Texas Tech | 77.39 |
41 | Georgia Tech | 76.89 |
42 | Colorado | 76.88 |
43 | BYU | 76.81 |
44 | Texas A&M | 75.69 |
45 | Oregon St | 75.61 |
46 | Louisville | 75.22 |
47 | C. Florida | 75.21 |
48 | Troy | 75.10 |
49 | NC State | 75.04 |
50 | Hawaii | 74.82 |
51 | Miss St | 74.67 |
52 | Appalachian | 74.64 |
53 | Washington | 74.49 |
54 | Michigan St | 74.42 |
55 | UCLA | 74.38 |
56 | Air Force | 74.19 |
57 | Maryland | 73.87 |
58 | Utah | 73.79 |
59 | Miami F | 73.64 |
60 | East Carolina | 72.77 |
61 | UNC | 72.14 |
62 | Nebraska | 71.85 |
63 | TCU | 71.71 |
64 | N Dakota St | 71.43 |
65 | Indiana | 71.33 |
66 | Houston | 71.11 |
67 | Iowa | 71.09 |
68 | New Mexico | 70.74 |
69 | Arizona | 70.70 |
70 | Delaware | 70.54 |
71 | S Illinois | 70.24 |
72 | Wyoming | 70.04 |
73 | Fresno St | 70.01 |
74 | Navy | 69.93 |
75 | Pittsburgh | 69.73 |
76 | Washington St | 69.28 |
77 | Stanford | 69.15 |
78 | UMass | 69.04 |
79 | Ga South | 68.94 |
80 | Wofford | 68.83 |
81 | Central Michigan | 68.74 |
82 | Elon | 68.44 |
83 | Richmond | 68.42 |
84 | Ball State | 68.26 |
85 | Northwestern | 67.85 |
86 | Tulsa | 67.64 |
87 | Ole Miss | 67.11 |
88 | McNeese St | 66.86 |
89 | Middle Tenn | 66.36 |
90 | Bowling Green | 66.36 |
91 | JMU | 66.34 |
92 | Florida Atlantic | 65.11 |
93 | Miami O | 64.95 |
94 | New Hampshire | 64.72 |
95 | Southern Miss | 64.68 |
96 | Hofstra | 64.54 |
97 | Iowa State | 64.13 |
98 | San Diego St | 63.90 |
99 | Duke | 63.59 |
100 | Toledo | 63.46 |
101 | Nevada | 63.34 |
102 | Yale | 63.31 |
103 | Montana | 63.21 |
104 | West.Kentucky | 63.16 |
105 | Ohio | 63.13 |
106 | Notre Dame | 63.07 |
107 | Citadel | 63.00 |
108 | Youngstown | 62.95 |
109 | S Dakota St | 62.86 |
110 | Buffalo | 62.19 |
111 | Villanova | 61.95 |
112 | La Tech | 61.85 |
113 | Kent State | 61.71 |
114 | Arkansas St | 61.35 |
115 | W Illinois | 60.93 |
116 | Syracuse | 60.83 |
117 | Minnesota | 60.42 |
118 | Baylor | 60.27 |
119 | Akron | 60.04 |
120 | Army | 60.00 |
121 | E Kentucky | 59.87 |
122 | Furman | 59.70 |
123 | Colorado St | 59.36 |
124 | UNLV | 59.28 |
125 | UTEP | 59.05 |
126 | West.Michigan | 59.03 |
127 | Holy Cross | 58.87 |
128 | La-Monroe | 58.68 |
129 | Memphis | 58.30 |
130 | San Jose | 57.96 |
131 | Grambling | 57.64 |
132 | Temple | 56.75 |
133 | East.Michigan | 55.96 |
134 | New Mexico St | 55.70 |
135 | La-Lafayette | 55.50 |
136 | Dayton | 55.28 |
137 | Wm & Mary | 55.19 |
138 | Illinois St | 54.65 |
139 | Fordham | 54.54 |
140 | Cal Poly | 54.50 |
141 | Chattanooga | 54.49 |
142 | Marshall | 54.44 |
143 | Delaware St | 54.44 |
144 | Missouri St | 54.12 |
145 | Sam Houston | 53.92 |
146 | Liberty | 53.82 |
147 | Colgate | 53.81 |
148 | Harvard | 53.80 |
149 | E.Wash. | 53.77 |
150 | SC State | 53.45 |
151 | Central Ark | 52.96 |
152 | Tulane | 52.70 |
153 | UAB | 52.47 |
154 | Rice | 52.25 |
155 | N Arizona | 52.14 |
156 | Jacksonville St | 52.13 |
157 | Jackson St | 51.79 |
158 | San Diego | 51.78 |
159 | Alabama A&M | 51.57 |
160 | Rhode Island | 51.36 |
161 | Utah State | 51.28 |
162 | Albany | 51.27 |
163 | Northeastern | 50.79 |
164 | E Illinois | 50.61 |
165 | Nicholls St | 50.24 |
166 | Towson | 50.13 |
167 | Southern | 50.12 |
168 | UC Davis | 49.86 |
169 | Florida Int. | 49.85 |
170 | SMU | 49.82 |
171 | Maine | 49.81 |
172 | Gardner Webb | 49.77 |
173 | Norfolk St | 49.63 |
174 | W Carolina | 49.42 |
175 | Idaho | 48.94 |
176 | Texas St | 48.66 |
177 | Northern Illinois | 48.50 |
178 | North Texas | 48.36 |
179 | Lehigh | 48.03 |
180 | Stony Brook | 47.53 |
181 | Montana St | 46.88 |
182 | Weber St | 46.87 |
183 | Hampton | 46.43 |
184 | Dartmouth | 46.01 |
185 | Coastal Car | 45.85 |
186 | Brown | 44.92 |
187 | Lafayette | 44.52 |
188 | Cornell | 44.46 |
189 | Iona | 44.04 |
190 | Morehead | 43.90 |
191 | Winston Salem | 43.23 |
192 | Tenn St | 42.93 |
193 | Portland St | 42.81 |
194 | Penn | 42.72 |
195 | Austin Peay | 42.32 |
196 | Prairie View | 42.06 |
197 | S Utah | 41.64 |
198 | Drake | 41.53 |
199 | Alabama St | 40.84 |
200 | Morgan St | 40.65 |
201 | Sacramento St | 40.57 |
202 | SE La | 40.28 |
203 | NW State | 40.17 |
204 | Tenn Martin | 39.74 |
205 | Charleston S | 39.30 |
206 | Princeton | 39.21 |
207 | Davidson | 39.00 |
208 | Cen Conn | 38.74 |
209 | Idaho St | 38.55 |
210 | Samford | 38.07 |
211 | Ark PB | 37.90 |
212 | Florida A&M | 37.81 |
213 | Tenn Tech | 37.65 |
214 | Howard | 37.58 |
215 | Monmouth | 37.05 |
216 | Wagner | 36.91 |
217 | SF Austin | 36.20 |
218 | Murray St | 34.27 |
219 | Bethune Cookman | 34.21 |
220 | N Colorado | 33.84 |
221 | VMI | 33.27 |
222 | Bucknell | 33.11 |
223 | Duquesne | 32.82 |
224 | Robert Morris | 32.04 |
225 | Alcorn | 31.95 |
226 | Valparaiso | 31.87 |
227 | Miss Valley | 31.74 |
228 | Columbia | 31.16 |
229 | SE Missouri | 30.33 |
230 | Indiana St | 29.50 |
231 | Georgetown | 27.51 |
232 | Jacksonville | 26.97 |
233 | NC A&T | 23.87 |
234 | Sacred Heart | 21.69 |
235 | Butler | 20.96 |
236 | St Francis | 20.71 |
237 | Marist | 20.41 |
238 | Texas Southern | 20.00 |
239 | Savannah St | 12.38 |
240 | LaSalle | 5.26 |