Ratings 12/01
Welcome to the first By the Numbers of 2001! The warm weather feels about right, but the December date is odd. The cancelled games from the 9/11 disaster ruined the schedule I had entered into the computer in early fall, so it wasn't until this weekend's make-up games that I could run the program.
Fortunately, there's still a good controversy for me to join: who gets to play Miami for the national championship? You may be surprised to see that the computer doesn't think that much of Tennessee. The culprit is not so much strength of schedule (although cupcakes like Notre Dame don't help) as it is winning margin. The Vols win by 11 per game, where Florida wins by 30, Nebraska by 24 and Miami by 34. A couple of teams of note: BYU is 11th, in spite of a 12-0 record, and Kansas State is 16th with a 6-5 record. This is strength of schedule: K-State lost to Oklahoma, Colorado, Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Nebraska. And, while BYU plays a 13-game schedule, it's not that tough. If this program were being used to choose the top two, this would be an interesting week. Can Tennessee beat LSU by enough to make the top two? (No) Since Florida played both LSU and Tennessee, will Florida's rating change as a result of the SEC championship? (Yes; it should go up, regardless of which team wins)
Here are predictions for this week's games. Home team gets
4 points extra:
Tennessee by 9 over LSU
BYU by 11 over Hawaii
Southern Miss by 12 over TCU
1 | Miami | 73.21 |
2 | Florida | 67.85 |
3 | Nebraska | 67.81 |
4 | Texas | 66.46 |
5 | Tennessee | 66.07 |
6 | Oregon | 65.68 |
7 | Colorado | 64.81 |
8 | Washington State | 63.87 |
9 | Oklahoma | 63.74 |
10 | Stanford | 63.06 |
11 | BYU | 62.44 |
12 | Illinois | 62.11 |
13 | UCLA | 60.18 |
14 | Michigan | 59.73 |
15 | Maryland | 59.37 |
16 | Kansas State | 59.01 |
17 | Fresno State | 58.26 |
18 | Washington | 57.48 |
19 | Syracuse | 57.44 |
20 | LSU | 57.27 |
21 | Florida State | 56.91 |
22 | Virginia Tech | 56.82 |
23 | Southern Cal | 56.46 |
24 | Texas Tech | 56.38 |
25 | South Carolina | 56.33 |
26 | Georgia | 55.81 |
27 | Ohio State | 54.56 |
28 | Iowa | 53.92 |
29 | Texas A&M | 53.63 |
30 | Alabama | 53.58 |
31 | Arkansas | 53.13 |
32 | Utah | 53.01 |
33 | North Carolina | 52.96 |
34 | Boston College | 52.67 |
35 | Iowa State | 52.62 |
36 | Auburn | 52.59 |
37 | Louisville | 51.99 |
38 | NC State | 51.14 |
39 | Notre Dame | 50.76 |
40 | Penn State | 50.72 |
41 | Georgia Tech | 50.41 |
42 | Michigan State | 50.34 |
43 | Indiana | 49.69 |
44 | Marshall | 49.65 |
45 | Purdue | 49.61 |
46 | Oregon State | 49.48 |
47 | Bowling Green | 48.96 |
48 | Ole Miss | 48.87 |
49 | Boise State | 48.42 |
50 | Colorado State | 48.31 |
51 | Wisconsin | 47.81 |
52 | Pittsburgh | 47.81 |
53 | Arizona State | 47.68 |
54 | Hawaii | 47.54 |
55 | Clemson | 47.06 |
56 | Toledo | 47.01 |
57 | Southern Miss | 46.62 |
58 | Louisiana Tech | 46.51 |
59 | Arizona | 45.84 |
60 | New Mexico | 45.55 |
61 | Oklahoma State | 45.49 |
62 | Wake Forest | 44.94 |
63 | East Carolina | 44.26 |
64 | Miami | 44.04 |
65 | Central Florida | 43.87 |
66 | Missouri | 43.72 |
67 | South Florida | 43.57 |
68 | Minnesota | 43.54 |
69 | Mississippi State | 43.25 |
70 | Northwestern | 42.89 |
71 | Virginia | 42.23 |
72 | Rice | 42.17 |
73 | UNLV | 42.03 |
74 | Middle Tennessee | 41.78 |
75 | Air Force | 41.54 |
76 | West Virginia | 41.51 |
77 | UAB | 40.92 |
78 | Cincinnati | 40.76 |
79 | Troy State | 40.69 |
80 | Northern Illinois | 40.09 |
81 | Memphis | 40.05 |
82 | Kansas | 39.91 |
83 | Kentucky | 39.73 |
84 | Western Michigan | 38.53 |
85 | TCU | 38.44 |
86 | Kent State | 38.19 |
87 | Baylor | 37.51 |
88 | California | 37.43 |
89 | Temple | 37.41 |
90 | Utah State | 36.11 |
91 | SMU | 35.56 |
92 | North Texas | 35.42 |
93 | San Diego State | 35.39 |
94 | San Jose State | 34.44 |
95 | Akron | 34.13 |
96 | Vanderbilt | 33.97 |
97 | Nevada | 33.89 |
98 | Ball State | 33.17 |
99 | New Mexico State | 32.21 |
100 | Ohio | 31.07 |
101 | Wyoming | 30.75 |
102 | Tulane | 30.16 |
103 | Central Michigan | 27.71 |
104 | Army | 25.91 |
105 | Duke | 25.51 |
106 | UTEP | 25.13 |
107 | Rutgers | 25.11 |
108 | Buffalo | 24.77 |
109 | Tulsa | 24.32 |
110 | Houston | 23.99 |
111 | La-Lafayette | 23.39 |
112 | Navy | 21.87 |
113 | Idaho | 20.52 |
114 | Connecticut | 20.37 |
115 | La-Monroe | 19.90 |
116 | Eastern Michigan | 19.78 |
117 | Arkansas State | 18.13 |