Ratings 10/02/04  
Ratings (October 2)

Welcome back to another year of By the Numbers! A brief description of the rating system can be found at the site http://www.roanoke.edu/staff/minton/bynumbers.html. Remember that the only data used are wins/losses and points for/against. As with all computer ratings, strength of schedule is built into the system and is very important. My system also uses point spreads, which (contrary to BCS propaganda) improves the accuracy of the system in terms of predicting future results.

There's definitely a Left Coast tilt to this week's top 12. Here's one of many reasons this might be accurate: Oregon State lost last week to Cal by 42. This is the same team that lost at LSU by 1 after missing 3 extra points. Other reasons: BYU over Notre Dame, Fresno State over Kansas State, Utah over Texas A&M. Here's another reason, although I admit that this might not be totally relevant: my son Greg is going to school near LA. He has his own ratings system, which you can find at http://www.cs.hmc.edu/~gminton/football/.

The fun of this part of the season is trying to figure out who's for real. West Virginia lost their shot at a perfect season, although they look good in a conference that has struggled against New Hampshire and the Furman Purple Paladins. In the WAC-ky part of the west, Boise State and Fresno State were candidates for unbeaten seasons, until (to paraphrase the commercial) La Tech said FresNO. The guys with the blue turf still look good at #12. Also out west, Utah hopes that the Utes will be served a BCS berth. The Big 10 seems to be more about Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin than Michigan and Ohio State. Auburn and Georgia have taken the leads in the SEC. And suddenly all of the good teams in the Big 12 are in the South division. In state, you might want to check out the relative ranks of Virginia and Virginia Tech. In this system, losing by 11 to #1 is better than beating Temple or the Zips or whoever the Hoos play this week.

A lot of games this weekend will help separate the good from the ugly. Ignoring any Thursday games (would you believe it's too early for this commentary? not important enough? I don't want to talk about it), the following predictions are straight from the ratings, with 4 points added for the home team.

Southern Cal over California by 9 (#1 vs #2, Cal cost USC the BCS last year)
Oklahoma over Texas by 5 (the Horns need Viagra for the Red River Shootout)
Michigan over Minnesota by 1 (can the Gophers handle the Big House?)
Ohio State over Wisconsin by 8 (another Big 10 wannabe with a big road game)
Georgia over Tennessee by 11 (battle of dawgs vs dogs between the hedges)
Florida over LSU by 5 (more bad news for the defending champs)
Virginia Tech over Wake Forest by 8 (the Should-Have-Beaten NC State Bowl)
Stanford over Notre Dame by 6 (Stanford had USC down early)
Cincinnati over Army by 10 (Bobby Ross looking for his first win at West Point)

1 Southern Cal 72.90
2 California 67.83
3 Miami F 67.38
4 Arizona St 66.31
5 Purdue 65.60
6 Utah 65.56
7 Oklahoma 64.83
8 Oklahoma St 62.85
9 Florida State 62.85
10 Georgia 62.60
11 Stanford 61.91
12 Boise St 61.78
13 S Carolina 61.43
14 Texas 59.25
15 Louisville 57.04
16 Texas A&M 56.96
17 Auburn 56.19
18 Southern Miss 56.09
19 Minnesota 56.05
20 Virginia 55.41
21 Tennessee 55.10
22 Ohio State 54.77
23 Virginia Tech 54.39
24 UAB 54.12
25 UCLA 53.72
26 Michigan 53.50
27 NC State 53.02
28 Texas Tech 52.79
29 Florida 52.67
30 Arkansas 52.38
31 Missouri 52.20
32 LSU 51.61
33 Notre Dame 51.53
34 BYU 51.10
35 Wisconsin 50.89
36 Nebraska 50.48
37 Troy 49.72
38 Washington St 49.54
39 Colorado 48.95
40 Alabama 48.88
41 Northwestern 48.60
42 UTEP 48.35
43 Navy 47.92
44 New Mexico 47.48
45 Memphis 47.01
46 Maryland 46.65
47 Oregon St 46.60
48 Boston College 46.27
49 West Virginia 46.18
50 Iowa 45.60
51 Kansas 44.90
52 UConn 44.58
53 TCU 44.55
54 Fresno St 44.23
55 Marshall 44.17
56 La Tech 43.69
57 South Florida 43.22
58 Bowling Green 42.87
59 Air Force 42.79
60 Wake Forest 42.51
61 Wyoming 42.36
62 Iowa State 41.17
63 Clemson 40.91
64 Syracuse 40.46
65 Illinois 40.46
66 Arizona 40.30
67 UNC 40.20
68 Georgia Tech 40.12
69 Oregon 40.00
70 San Diego St 39.74
71 Cincinnati 38.90
72 Northern Illinois 38.65
73 Colorado St 38.20
74 Pittsburgh 37.72
75 Kansas State 37.40
76 Rice 37.05
77 Miami O 36.40
78 Penn State 36.34
79 Ole Miss 35.91
80 SMU 35.79
81 Vanderbilt 35.13
82 San Jose 34.99
83 Utah State 34.69
84 Kentucky 34.44
85 Ohio 33.84
86 New Mexico St 33.71
87 Baylor 33.71
88 Houston 33.64
89 Washington 33.45
90 Indiana 33.43
91 Michigan St 33.19
92 Toledo 32.74
93 UNLV 32.64
94 Duke 30.94
95 La-Lafayette 29.22
96 Tulsa 29.12
97 Nevada 28.54
98 Ball State 27.54
99 Arkansas St 27.38
100 Tulane 26.98
101 Rutgers 26.97
102 Hawaii 25.92
103 Western Michigan 24.50
104 Miss St 24.46
105 Army 24.35
106 Temple 24.01
107 La-Monroe 23.78
108 Central Michigan 23.21
109 East Carolina 23.16
110 Idaho 22.24
111 North Texas 18.26
112 Kent 17.43
113 Eastern Michigan 17.17
114 Buffalo 15.42
115 Akron 15.37
116 Central Florida 14.71
117 Middle Tenn 13.41