Ratings 10/06/07  
Ratings (10/06)

Welcome to the first 2007 installment of By the Numbers! Let's start with a refresher course on what these ratings are and are not. More details can be found at http://www.roanoke.edu/staff/minton/bynumbers.html. The basic form of the ratings comes from just looking at each team's points scored minus points against. A team that is on average losing by 6 points per game should have a rating that is 6 points less than the average of their opponents' ratings. A team that wins by 8 points per game should have a rating 8 points higher than their opponents'. Therefore, the difference in any two teams' ratings should be a point spread giving how much better one team is than the other. Also, strength of schedule is built in: if you win by 8 points per game, you add 8 to your opponents' rating. The better your opponents are, the higher your rating will be. The computer is only used to sort out the numbers for this system. This gives 40% of a team's rating. The other 60% comes from looking at wins and losses. In essence, this is pretending that every game is 20-0, and then applying the same logic as before.

That is all the ratings include. The system does not know when the games were played or which team was at home or anything else except schedule, wins and losses, and points for and against. I've always been amazed that this limited data produces anything worthwhile. One problem that I've always worried about is what to do when a Michigan plays an Appalachian State (if you're the announcer, just scream as loud as you can). The issue is that I only want to rate the 1-A teams. (I know, it's now Bowl Series teams, but I don't like the abbreviation.) In the past, I've usually counted all of the 1-AA teams as the same team. That is, when Michigan plays App State and Illinois plays Western Illinois, the computer thinks they both played the same team. This year, that became a simplification that I wasn't willing to make. Parity not only means that many ACC teams are happy to win 7 games, but also that 1-AA teams can play with 1-A teams. And play they have, recording several wins.

So this year, I'll track 240 teams instead of 120. For this week, I ran the ratings using all 240 teams and under the old assumption of all 1-AA teams being the same. The results are very interesting, especially if you like to argue about which conference is the best. LSU is #1 either way, but in the all-240 version they lead #2 South Florida (no Bull!) by half a point while in the 1-A-only version they lead #2 Arizona State by a full 7 points. Much to my surprise, the model with more teams has a much smaller spread. The other main difference is that the 1-A-only version likes the Pac 10, with Arizona State #2, Oregon #3 and Cal #5. These teams drop to #6, #9 and #11, respectively, in the all-240 version. (The city-wide collapse of LA sports teams didn't help.) Meanwhile, the ACC gets a huge boost. Boston College, for example, gets credit for playing a very good UMass team and jumps from #15 to #3. You'll see similar jumps for Hokies, Hoos and a host of ACC teams. Michigan, of course, is helped by getting credit for playing a good App State team, rising from #54 to #33. Oklahoma drops from #10 to #32 -- I have no clue why there is such a difference, but the strength of schedule is awful after games against #178 Utah State and #205 North Texas.

Which version is right? Neither. Which is better? I'll let you decide. I will say that the all-240 is fun if for no other reason than seeing Notre Dame at #110. Do I really think that Elon and the Fighting Blue Hens of Delaware could beat the Irish? Don't be silly. But Duke .... While I'm picking on teams, try to find Louisville in the list. That, to me, is a more suprising collapse than Notre Dame.

No really big games this week, but there are several games that will help decide who's in the top half and who's in the bottom half of conference standings. The ratings say that the UVa - UConn game is a battle of top 20 teams. There are several other games that go against common beliefs. It's early in the year, so it will be interesting to find out who's right. The following picks are straight from the ratings with 4 points added for home field.

Virginia Tech over Duke 10 (that's 8 more than VCU won by in basketball -- ah, the memories)
Virginia over Connecticut by 4 (both beat Pitt and Duke; who knows?)
Wake Forest over Florida State by 3 (an upset? depends on which new QB plays better)
South Carolina over North Carolina by 5 (another win for the Smelley gang?)
Illinois over Iowa by 13 (Juice tries to steal another Big 10 win for the Illini)
Michigan over Purdue by 2 (not App State, but another important test at the Big House)
Missouri over Oklahoma by 3 (maybe the computer should have respected OU sooner)
Texas A&M over Texas Tech by 2 (first real competition for Graham Harrell's flying circus)
LSU over Kentucky by 4 (big game #2 for the Cats, hoping for a different "Bluegrass Miracle")
San Jose State over Hawaii by 2 (an upset could refract the Rainbows' unbeaten dream)

The far right-hand column shows the ranking of each 1-A team using the old rating system.

1 LSU 53.32 1
2 S. Florida 52.75 8
3 Boston College 51.24 15
4 Ohio State 50.61 4
5 Missouri 49.76 7
6 Arizona St 49.32 2
7 S Carolina 48.20 13
8 Illinois 47.96 17
9 Oregon 47.65 3
10 Virginia Tech 47.50 21
11 California 47.21 5
12 Auburn 46.90 11
13 Florida 46.17 6
14 West Virginia 45.59 14
15 Kentucky 45.56 18
16 UConn 45.43 20
17 Virginia 45.35 31
18 Cincinnati 45.29 9
19 Florida State 44.85 23
20 Wisconsin 44.34 39
21 Kansas 44.34 12
22 Wake Forest 43.84 43
23 Miss St 43.61 37
24 Purdue 43.55 30
25 Texas A&M 43.52 36
26 Southern Cal 43.45 19
27 Nebraska 43.15 42
28 Colorado 43.05 22
29 Maryland 42.76 50
30 Wyoming 42.65 33
31 Indiana 42.63 25
32 Oklahoma 42.36 10
33 Michigan 41.91 54
34 Clemson 41.87 47
35 Georgia 41.77 26
36 Kansas State 41.52 24
37 Tennessee 41.51 28
38 UCLA 41.43 34
39 Boise St 41.39 16
40 Michigan St 41.09 49
41 Akron 41.00 60
42 Alabama 40.99 29
43 Stanford 40.93 48
44 N Iowa 40.88
45 Appalachian 40.88
46 Bowling Green 40.87 66
47 Georgia Tech 40.74 44
48 UMass 40.69
49 Rutgers 39.94 32
50 Hofstra 39.73
51 UNC 39.64 67
52 BYU 39.47 38
53 Montana 39.41
54 Miami F 39.38 58
55 N Dakota St 39.30
56 Wofford 39.27
57 Penn State 39.26 46
58 Texas 39.21 41
59 Washington 39.11 40
60 Vanderbilt 38.88 56
61 East Carolina 38.84 63
62 West.Kentucky 38.43 88
63 Air Force 38.34 57
64 Troy 38.13 62
65 Tulsa 38.04 55
66 JMU 38.01
67 Oregon St 37.58 45
68 Northwestern 37.52 74
69 Miami O 37.50 79
70 Fresno St 37.45 59
71 McNeese St 37.44
72 Navy 37.39 68
73 S Illinois 37.11
74 Texas Tech 37.03 35
75 Pittsburgh 36.87 80
76 Southern 36.82
77 Florida Atlantic 36.80 83
78 Arkansas 36.71 51
79 Army 36.59 81
80 Alabama A&M 36.47
81 Youngstown 36.46
82 Kent State 36.38 85
83 Hawaii 36.35 27
84 Oklahoma St 36.19 53
85 Central Michigan 36.02 93
86 E Kentucky 35.97
87 Grambling 35.64
88 C. Florida 35.59 73
89 Ball State 35.58 75
90 UTEP 35.55 61
91 Villanova 35.32
92 New Mexico 35.21 52
93 Montana St 35.13
94 Elon 34.84
95 San Jose 34.83 90
96 Houston 34.76 64
97 Ole Miss 34.73 71
98 New Mexico St 34.47 82
99 West.Michigan 34.37 76
100 Delaware St 34.36
101 TCU 34.18 69
102 Utah 34.15 65
103 Delaware 34.09
104 Minnesota 33.99 86
105 Washington St 33.87 77
106 Nevada 33.84 92
107 Baylor 33.74 89
108 San Diego St 33.64 78
109 Duke 33.48 91
110 Notre Dame 33.33 95
111 Citadel 33.09
112 W Illinois 33.07
113 Yale 32.98
114 New Hampshire 32.71
115 NC State 32.68 102
116 Arizona 32.31 72
117 Wm & Mary 31.93
118 Tulane 31.76 98
119 Nicholls St 31.76
120 Jackson St 31.75
121 Norfolk St 31.69
122 Drake 31.64
123 Ohio 31.39 103
124 UNLV 31.33 87
125 Ga South 31.32
126 Louisville 31.30 70
127 La-Monroe 31.20 105
128 Richmond 30.95
129 Middle Tenn 30.72 101
130 Albany 30.70
131 Syracuse 30.69 106
132 Iowa 30.68 96
133 Colgate 30.64
134 Toledo 30.58 107
135 Buffalo 30.58 104
136 Arkansas St 30.46 100
137 Missouri St 30.33
138 Fordham 30.32
139 Furman 30.25
140 Hampton 30.22
141 Southern Miss 29.94 84
142 Lehigh 29.94
143 Samford 29.88
144 Towson 29.86
145 UAB 29.63 99
146 SC State 29.54
147 Alabama St 29.10
148 E Wash 28.89
149 E Michigan 28.84 110
150 E Illinois 28.80
151 Tenn St 28.72
152 Illinois St 28.57
153 Iowa State 28.45 111
154 Maine 28.20
155 UC Davis 28.06
156 La Tech 28.00 94
157 Gardner Webb 27.83
158 Memphis 27.82 108
159 Dayton 27.67
160 Temple 27.60 113
161 Holy Cross 27.51
162 La-Lafayette 27.38 117
163 Rice 27.14 116
164 Prairie View 27.10
165 Florida Int. 27.10 118
166 S Dakota St 26.85
167 Colorado St 26.57 97
168 SE La 26.50
169 Florida A&M 26.33
170 Marshall 26.16 115
171 San Diego 25.48
172 Stony Brook 25.39
173 Chattanooga 25.32
174 S Utah 25.27
175 Miss Valley 25.19
176 Portland St 25.14
177 W Carolina 24.98
178 Utah State 24.95 109
179 SE Missouri 24.94
180 Morehead 24.92
181 Weber St 24.79
182 SMU 24.56 112
183 N Arizona 24.56
184 Princeton 24.32
185 Austin Peay 24.22
186 Northeastern 24.17
187 Jacksonville St 24.17
188 Idaho 24.17 114
189 Coastal Car 24.14
190 Rhode Island 24.09
191 VMI 24.06
192 Texas St 23.95
193 Harvard 23.69
194 Charleston S 23.43
195 Idaho St 22.96
196 Northern Illinois 22.74 119
197 Winston Salem 22.73
198 Dartmouth 22.36
199 NW State 22.31
200 Lafayette 22.27
201 Sacramento St 22.23
202 Iona 21.93
203 Cal Poly 21.78
204 Cornell 21.57
205 North Texas 21.56 120
206 Ark PB 21.28
207 Howard 21.03
208 Morgan St 20.85
209 Liberty 20.76
210 Cen Conn 20.63
211 Texas So 20.40
212 Robert Morris 20.36
213 Central Ark 20.28
214 Wagner 20.02
215 Tenn Tech 19.96
216 Sam Houston 19.92
217 Indiana St 19.80
218 SF Austin 19.43
219 Bethune Cookman 18.75
220 Davidson 17.99
221 Bucknell 17.13
222 Penn 17.11
223 Valparaiso 16.56
224 Butler 16.56
225 Alcorn 16.55
226 Monmouth 15.85
227 Brown 15.74
228 Columbia 14.87
229 NC A&T 14.52
230 N Colorado 14.23
231 Murray St 14.00
232 Tenn Martin 12.82
233 Georgetown 12.47
234 Duquesne 11.66
235 Jacksonville 11.06
236 St Francis 9.67
237 Savannah St 9.01
238 Sacred Heart 7.21
239 Marist 6.57
240 LaSalle 2.57