Ratings 10/09/04  
Ratings (October 9)

This week's top three certainly look familiar! I'm always amazed that a system that relies purely on wins/losses and points for/against can closely match the polls. One thing that this system does not do is punish teams that lose to good teams, or reward teams that beat up on poor teams. So you'll still find Cal in the top 5 and you'll still have to look down awhile to find Virginia. The ratings have a definite opinion on the conferences, with the Pac 10 holding 3 of the top 5 and the MAC taking 7 of the bottom 8. The "best" conference, the SEC, dominates the 25-30 range.

Last week's games pulled several teams down a notch. Minnesota again forgot to play the fourth quarter against Michigan. Georgia lost both its Heisman and national championship hopes. Nebraska might be thinking that the Frank Solich days look good after a 60-point debacle at Texas Tech. Cal has to wonder what it takes, after its QB Aaron Rodgers goes 14-14 in the first half, which they trail by 6, and 29-34 for the game, which they lose by 6. On the plus side, Army broke its 19-game losing streak! That leaves only one winless team in Division 1-A.

There aren't as many big games this week. Southern Cal gets another home game against an undefeated but unproven team, this time Arizona State. West Virginia and Connecticut play for the Big East lead (check out the prediction!). There is an unbeaten showdown in the Big 10, but Wisconsin and Purdue haven't generated much excitement. And Navy tries to break a 40-game losing streak to Notre Dame. Only bad luck and some bad officiating has kept the streak alive in the last few years, but the system here has little sympathy for the Middies. And, of course, there's the big ACC showdown between Virginia and Florida State. The following predictions are straight from the ratings, with 4 points added for the home team.

Florida State over Virginia by 7 (not many ACC teams have won in Tallahassee)
Miami over Louisville by 13 (the Cards are unbeaten and ornery)
Southern Cal over Arizona State by 7 (the Sun Devils beat Iowa 44-7)
U Conn over West Virginia by 4 (would you believe a BCS berth for the Huskies?)
Oklahoma State over Texas A&M by 9 (two overlooked threats to OU)
Purdue over Wisconsin by 12 (the computer hasn't seen the Badgers play D)
Notre Dame over Navy by 11 (can unbeaten Navy stop the streak?)
Virginia Tech over Florida A&M by 36 (1-AA teams have a rating of 20 in this system)
Maryland and NC State even (both teams forgot to show up last week)
Central Florida and Akron even (UCF is the only winless team left)

1 Southern Cal 70.87
2 Oklahoma 70.51
3 Miami F 69.15
4 Arizona St 67.86
5 California 65.57
6 Utah 64.72
7 Oklahoma St 63.95
8 Purdue 62.53
9 Florida State 62.24
10 Texas 60.66
11 Auburn 60.40
12 Louisville 60.39
13 Boise St 59.65
14 Tennessee 59.47
15 Virginia 59.28
16 Texas A&M 59.23
17 Texas Tech 57.58
18 Georgia 57.19
19 Michigan 56.95
20 Stanford 55.56
21 Notre Dame 55.21
22 UCLA 54.30
23 Minnesota 54.27
24 Wisconsin 54.15
25 S Carolina 53.14
26 Arkansas 53.05
27 LSU 53.01
28 Virginia Tech 52.12
29 Southern Miss 51.52
30 Florida 51.37
31 UAB 50.69
32 UTEP 49.78
33 Missouri 49.45
34 Alabama 48.89
35 Ohio State 48.24
36 Iowa 48.21
37 Northwestern 48.19
38 Navy 47.90
39 Memphis 47.41
40 Wyoming 46.71
41 NC State 46.58
42 Colorado 46.36
43 Troy 46.04
44 West Virginia 45.80
45 TCU 45.79
46 Kansas 45.75
47 Boston College 45.74
48 Oregon St 45.72
49 UNC 45.69
50 Air Force 45.69
51 Georgia Tech 45.66
52 UConn 45.48
53 BYU 45.01
54 Oregon 44.99
55 Bowling Green 44.71
56 New Mexico 44.50
57 Washington St 44.08
58 Nebraska 43.66
59 Rice 43.05
60 Fresno St 42.60
61 Maryland 42.58
62 La Tech 41.71
63 Clemson 41.69
64 Syracuse 41.55
65 Marshall 41.12
66 Wake Forest 40.87
67 Ole Miss 40.59
68 Iowa State 40.49
69 South Florida 40.31
70 Penn State 39.95
71 Michigan St 39.42
72 Arizona 38.49
73 San Diego St 38.16
74 Northern Illinois 37.86
75 Houston 37.80
76 UNLV 37.48
77 Illinois 36.72
78 Kansas State 36.51
79 Pittsburgh 36.24
80 Indiana 36.04
81 Washington 35.79
82 Miami O 35.78
83 Colorado St 35.70
84 New Mexico St 33.99
85 Baylor 33.64
86 Toledo 33.63
87 Kentucky 33.24
88 Cincinnati 33.15
89 Hawaii 33.01
90 SMU 32.89
91 Rutgers 32.47
92 Army 31.96
93 Ohio 31.93
94 Vanderbilt 31.43
95 Tulsa 30.92
96 San Jose 30.90
97 Utah State 30.11
98 Duke 29.85
99 La-Lafayette 29.00
100 La-Monroe 26.76
101 Nevada 25.67
102 Central Michigan 25.46
103 Miss St 25.44
104 East Carolina 24.66
105 North Texas 24.22
106 Temple 24.14
107 Arkansas St 23.97
108 Middle Tenn 23.39
109 Tulane 22.30
110 Ball State 22.02
111 Akron 21.74
112 Idaho 20.08
113 Kent 19.94
114 Eastern Michigan 19.65
115 Western Michigan 19.54
116 Central Florida 17.64
117 Buffalo 13.23