Ratings 10/12/02  
Ratings (October 12)

Welcome back to another year of By the Numbers! A brief description of the rating system can be found at http://homepages.roanoke.edu/~minton/bynumbers.html. Remember that the only data used are wins/losses and points for/against. As with all computer ratings, strength of schedule is built into the system and is very important. My system also uses point spreads, which (contrary to BCS propaganda) improves the accuracy of the system in terms of predicting future results.

Look who's number 1! Clearly, it pays to recruit Salem High players (go, Nic!). The ranking may not last long, as Tech moves into the Big Turkey part of its schedule. To date, the schedule has been great: LSU and Marshall are unbeaten apart from Tech, the Aggies and Eagles are good, and even Arkansas State is 4-4.

Usually at this stage of the season, the computer has a favorite conference. This is always a little troubling, because due to strength of schedule an entire conference can be ranked high. This year is odd in that there is no dominant conference. The Big East has the top two but also has #101 (Syracuse!!!) and #114. Most TV people like the Big 12 and the Pac 10, but the Pac 10 has nobody in the top 8. The Big 12 does have 8 teams in the top 32 (check out who's the eighth of those!) but only 2 in the top 10. Among the top 40, the Big 12 and SEC have 8, the Pac 10 and Big 10 have 6 and the ACC has 5. So there's a fair amount of balance.

In spite of its troubles with a hurricane and the Hurricanes, Florida State gets a top 10 spot. This is another example of strength of schedule. Of course, it took special teams for both #6 and #7 to beat Clemson (and its special ed teams). Several surprise teams are on the charts: Notre Dame, Iowa State, Iowa, Air Force, California and Bowling Green have crashed the party.

This week's games don't have the star value of last weeks', but there are some important games. The following predictions are straight from the ratings, with 4 points added for the home team.

Virginia Tech over Rutgers by 54
Air Force and Notre Dame even
Alabama over Ole Miss by 9
Clemson over Wake by 7
Oklahoma over Iowa State by 6
Ohio State over Wisconsin by 8
Virginia over UNC by 16

1 Virginia Tech 67.97
2 Miami 64.96
3 Notre Dame 63.95
4 Oklahoma 62.77
5 Ohio State 62.74
6 Georgia 61.94
7 Florida State 61.84
8 Iowa State 61.06
9 Southern Cal 60.96
10 Air Force 60.05
11 Iowa 58.66
12 Michigan 58.47
13 LSU 58.22
14 Arkansas 56.70
15 Wash State 56.49
16 Penn State 56.48
17 Oregon 56.46
18 Kansas State 56.07
19 California 56.05
20 Texas 55.99
21 NC State 55.96
22 Alabama 54.54
23 Bowling Green 54.44
24 UCLA 53.53
25 Texas A&M 53.35
26 Boston College 52.39
27 Colorado 52.14
28 Texas Tech 51.84
29 Virginia 51.69
30 S Carolina 51.41
31 Florida 51.01
32 Nebraska 50.53
33 Wisconsin 50.51
34 Colorado St 49.81
35 Kentucky 49.41
36 Oregon St 49.40
37 Marshall 49.17
38 Clemson 49.10
39 Mississippi 49.07
40 Maryland 49.03
41 Louisville 49.03
42 Washington 48.66
43 Arizona St 48.41
44 Auburn 48.38
45 Tennessee 48.30
46 South Florida 48.25
47 Minnesota 47.95
48 Georgia Tech 47.67
49 Missouri 47.60
50 Pittsburgh 47.12
51 Wake Forest 46.14
52 Michigan State 45.77
53 Boise 45.65
54 Purdue 45.04
55 Southern Miss 43.73
56 Miami O 43.46
57 Toledo 43.06
58 West Virginia 43.00
59 NM State 42.27
60 Arizona 41.49
61 Fresno 41.42
62 TCU 40.07
63 Indiana 40.04
64 Utah 39.96
65 North Ill 39.74
66 Stanford 39.49
67 North Carolina 39.34
68 UCF 39.24
69 Illinois 38.85
70 Cincinnati 38.53
71 Hawaii 38.25
72 New Mexico 38.01
73 BYU 37.18
74 Miss State 36.97
75 Western Mich 36.53
76 Oklahoma St 36.49
77 San Jose 36.18
78 Tulane 35.77
79 Memphis 35.47
80 Central Mich 35.20
81 Northwestern 34.71
82 Temple 34.14
83 UAB 34.04
84 UConn 33.96
85 Nevada 33.68
86 Duke 33.59
87 La Tech 33.06
88 Kent State 32.58
89 UNLV 32.57
90 North Texas 32.19
91 Troy State 32.14
92 East Carolina 32.11
93 Baylor 31.76
94 San Diego St 31.27
95 La-Lafayette 30.74
96 Houston 30.19
97 Rice 29.35
98 Ball State 29.24
99 Kansas 29.19
100 Vanderbilt 29.07
101 Syracuse 28.96
102 Arkansas St 28.15
103 Utah State 26.46
104 Akron 26.33
105 Wyoming 26.00
106 Mid Tenn 25.91
107 Idaho 24.14
108 Navy 24.00
109 Ohio 23.84
110 Eastern Mich 21.89
111 UTEP 20.68
112 Buffalo 18.87
113 La-Monroe 18.47
114 Rutgers 18.22
115 Tulsa 17.56
116 SMU 17.52
117 Army 11.26