Ratings 10/15/05  
Ratings (10/15)

Welcome back to another year of By the Numbers! A brief description of the rating system can be found at the site http://www.roanoke.edu/staff/minton/bynumbers.html. Remember that the only data used are wins/losses and points for/against. As with all computer ratings, strength of schedule is built into the system and is very important. My system also uses point spreads, which (contrary to BCS propaganda) improves the accuracy of the system in terms of predicting future results.

We're coming off of one of the most exciting weeks ever in college football, in what might be the most exciting year ever in college football. Almost every ACC game goes down to the wire (and, as a Clemson fan, I'm tired of it; give me a nice blow-out any day). Parity is the name of the game. As of this week, 23 of the 119 Division 1-A teams are 3-3, another 6 were 3-3 going into their games last weekend and another 11 could get to 3-3 this weekend. If it was all defense and bad play, it wouldn't be so great, but USC and Notre Dame trade 4th-quarter touchdowns, Penn State and Michigan trade 4th-quarter touchdowns, and West Virginia and Louisville trade TD's through 3 overtimes. And that's not even mentioning UCLA vs Washington State, Boston College vs Wake, Wisconsin vs Minnesota or Northwestern vs anybody.

The main difference at the top of my ratings compared to the polls is Penn State and LSU being a little higher. At this stage, strength of schedule helps both teams. There's no strong conference bias this year. The SEC has 5-7 but then nothing until 20. The Big 10 has 3, 8, 9 and 12. But 3 of the top 4 are from other conferences. The ACC has 6 of the top 30, which for some reason is where I stop counting. But, if you're a Wahoo, feel free to continue farther down the list.

We won't get the Paterno-Bowden Rose Bowl everybody was hoping for, but we may finish with more than 2 unbeatens to create a great argument. And, if there's only one unbeaten, there will be a huge argument among several once-beaten teams for the right to lose to USC. I think it's too early to give Tech a 12-0, especially since every game they have left is losable. The ACC is very balanced (just ask a Bowden). Texas and Texas Tech is shaping up as the most important game of the Big 12, and USC-UCLA might be a battle of unbeatens. The following predictions are straight from the ratings, with 4 points added for home field.


Virginia Tech over Maryland by 13 (can the Hokies keep rolling? Fear the turtle?)
Virginia over North Carolina by 1 (tough follow-up for the Hoos, don't trip on the Heels)
Miami over Georgia Tech by 12 (don't overlook the Canes)
Texas over Texas Tech by 12 (the Red Raiders are tougher this year, but so are the Horns)
Alabama over Tennessee by 13 (a loss drops the Vols to, yes, 3-3)
LSU over Auburn by 10 (Auburn's improved, the computer is not impressed)
West Virginia over South Florida by 1 (don't slip against the Bulls, the chips are down)
Michigan over Iowa by 6 (everybody is in the hunt in the Big 10)

1 Southern Cal 69.77
2 Texas 68.94
3 Penn State 67.58
4 Virginia Tech 67.14
5 LSU 63.16
6 Georgia 63.05
7 Alabama 63.03
8 Ohio State 62.94
9 Wisconsin 62.14
10 Texas Tech 60.70
11 Miami F 60.67
12 Michigan 60.33
13 Notre Dame 59.44
14 Minnesota 59.30
15 Florida State 58.61
16 UCLA 58.51
17 Oregon 57.99
18 Arizona St 57.28
19 Boston College 57.07
20 Florida 57.03
21 Auburn 56.83
22 Michigan St 56.65
23 Northwestern 55.56
24 West Virginia 54.94
25 Tennessee 54.44
26 Colorado 54.17
27 Nebraska 54.14
28 Louisville 53.70
29 Georgia Tech 52.64
30 Clemson 51.89
31 Oklahoma 51.67
32 Fresno St 51.40
33 TCU 51.13
34 Maryland 50.23
35 South Florida 50.16
36 Iowa 49.93
37 Texas A&M 49.53
38 Virginia 49.00
39 California 48.44
40 Southern Miss 47.94
41 Oregon St 47.15
42 Toledo 47.10
43 Tulsa 46.71
44 Missouri 46.70
45 UTEP 46.59
46 S Carolina 46.51
47 NC State 45.92
48 Indiana 45.79
49 Kansas State 45.36
50 Vanderbilt 45.09
51 Miami O 45.01
52 Northern Illinois 44.79
53 Baylor 44.48
54 Wyoming 44.11
55 Colorado St 44.10
56 UConn 44.06
57 UNC 43.93
58 Bowling Green 43.63
59 Purdue 43.41
60 Central Michigan 43.35
61 Pittsburgh 43.32
62 Wake Forest 42.70
63 Boise St 42.68
64 BYU 42.67
65 Houston 41.92
66 Rutgers 41.89
67 Arkansas 41.85
68 Memphis 41.65
69 Iowa State 41.65
70 New Mexico 41.42
71 Washington St 40.81
72 Miss St 40.78
73 Kansas 40.58
74 Central Florida 40.49
75 Navy 40.00
76 Ole Miss 39.79
77 Cincinnati 39.40
78 Stanford 39.20
79 San Diego St 38.72
80 Marshall 38.38
81 East Carolina 37.86
82 Air Force 37.25
83 Utah 36.87
84 Middle Tenn 35.89
85 Ohio 35.40
86 Akron 35.39
87 East.Michigan 35.24
88 UAB 35.15
89 Nevada 35.12
90 Oklahoma St 34.87
91 Washington 34.36
92 Illinois 33.75
93 La Tech 33.70
94 Syracuse 33.40
95 Arkansas St 33.20
96 Hawaii 32.04
97 Arizona 32.01
98 Kentucky 31.96
99 Tulane 31.81
100 SMU 31.36
101 Duke 30.76
102 La-Monroe 29.99
103 North Texas 29.48
104 West.Michigan 28.74
105 Kent State 27.78
106 Army 27.42
107 Ball State 27.22
108 Rice 26.63
109 Troy 25.31
110 UNLV 24.58
111 Florida Atlantic 23.64
112 La-Lafayette 23.52
113 Utah State 22.95
114 Florida Int. 22.95
115 Temple 22.83
116 New Mexico St 22.14
117 San Jose 19.40
118 Buffalo 17.92
119 Idaho 16.91