Ratings 10/16/04  
Ratings (October 16)

On, Wisconsin! The Badgers grabbed a second straight upset road win to take the Big 10 lead. They will be favored to win their remaining games, unless an injury to star defensive end Erasmus James is serious. But, at 7-0, why are they only ranked #21 by my computer? My thinking was that an average victory margin of 12.5 was holding them back. By comparison, USC has an average victory margin of 23. So I ran the system again, this time treating each game as a 20-point game; in other words, counting wins and losses but not the margin of victory. Wisconsin only improved to #15. While that put them at the top of the Big 10, it's still not close to the AP #6 ranking the Badgers enjoy. It seems that the computer is not impressed with the Big 10 in general, or in particular with Wisconsin's non-league schedule of Central Florida (0-6, #116), UNLV (2-5, #73) and Arizona (1-5, #76).

The ratings shown below are a combination of treating wins only and treating points only. The combination has proved to be more accurate predicting future games than either wins only or points only. The top 5 based on wins alone is USC, Miami, Florida State, Arizona State, Oklahoma. The top 5 based on points alone is USC, Cal, Miami, Oklahoma, Louisville. A couple of oddities: Boise State is #11 on wins alone but #28 on points alone; I would have expected it the other way round. Tennessee is #8 on wins, #26 on points. UAB is #17 on wins, #44 on points. Southern Miss is #26 on wins (including one at Nebraska) but #77 on points. Virginia Tech is #40 on wins, #13 on points. Florida is #43 on wins, #18 on points. After scaring Miami, Louisville is #22 on wins, #5 on points.

Southern Cal and Florida State gave two upstarts a rude smackdown. Notre Dame extended its streak over Navy to 41, Army won its second straight, Clemson extended its season-high win streak to one. Southern Cal looks good the rest of the way, with Notre Dame and UCLA being the likely challengers. Oklahoma still has a very tough road, with Oklahoma State and Texas A&M and a possible championship game collapse. Auburn has Georgia, Alabama and a championship game. This week's games include several battles for second and third place in conferences. The following predictions are straight from the ratings, with 4 points added for home field advantage.

Purdue over Michigan by 7 (can the Boilers bounce back at home?)
Miami over NC State by 19 (the Wuffpack gives FSU fits; will it be the same for the Canes?)
Georgia and Arkansas even (the Hogs are tough at home; how good are the Dawgs?)
Boise State over Fresno State by 19 (not the battle of unbeatens we expected)
Texas Tech over Texas by 1 (the Raiders won't score 70 again; can they win a tight one?)
Tennessee over Alabama by 13 (the Vols try to maintain their division lead)
Wisconsin over Northwestern by 14 (the next step toward an unbeaten season?)
West Virginia over Syracuse by 10 (Big East battle for those who care)
Florida State over Wake Forest by 21 (can the Noles keep up the intensity?)

1 Southern Cal 77.41
2 Miami F 71.70
3 California 68.56
4 Oklahoma 67.65
5 Florida State 67.36
6 Utah 66.68
7 Arizona St 66.20
8 Texas A&M 63.84
9 Auburn 63.48
10 Louisville 61.00
11 Oklahoma St 60.34
12 Tennessee 60.20
13 Purdue 59.94
14 Texas 58.71
15 Boise St 58.57
16 Notre Dame 58.47
17 Stanford 58.34
18 Virginia 57.61
19 Michigan 57.01
20 Georgia 56.76
21 Wisconsin 56.53
22 Texas Tech 56.15
23 LSU 55.03
24 Virginia Tech 54.39
25 UAB 53.10
26 UCLA 52.69
27 Iowa 52.68
28 Arkansas 52.30
29 Florida 52.27
30 Alabama 51.54
31 S Carolina 51.35
32 UTEP 50.43
33 Minnesota 50.24
34 BYU 49.84
35 West Virginia 48.66
36 NC State 48.61
37 Memphis 48.17
38 Missouri 47.97
39 Colorado 47.72
40 Oregon St 47.67
41 Oregon 47.25
42 Georgia Tech 47.09
43 Navy 46.96
44 Kansas 46.96
45 Air Force 46.86
46 Michigan St 46.57
47 Northwestern 46.55
48 UNC 46.34
49 New Mexico 46.26
50 Wyoming 45.85
51 Southern Miss 45.84
52 Washington St 45.60
53 Clemson 45.33
54 Ohio State 45.29
55 Bowling Green 45.22
56 Nebraska 45.19
57 La Tech 44.76
58 Fresno St 43.93
59 UConn 43.19
60 Syracuse 42.50
61 Ole Miss 42.41
62 Maryland 41.89
63 Boston College 41.89
64 TCU 41.80
65 Wake Forest 41.78
66 Iowa State 40.61
67 North.Illinois 39.89
68 Kansas State 39.86
69 Troy 39.77
70 Colorado St 39.56
71 Pittsburgh 39.00
72 Penn State 38.90
73 UNLV 38.70
74 Marshall 38.57
75 Illinois 37.95
76 Arizona 37.72
77 Indiana 37.59
78 Toledo 37.51
79 San Diego St 36.55
80 Houston 35.88
81 Rutgers 35.51
82 Washington 35.40
83 Rice 35.28
84 Miami O 35.22
85 Kentucky 34.62
86 South Florida 33.69
87 Army 33.46
88 New Mexico St 33.35
89 Cincinnati 33.21
90 Tulsa 32.50
91 Vanderbilt 32.24
92 Hawaii 31.36
93 Baylor 31.20
94 Nevada 30.57
95 Ohio 30.38
96 La-Monroe 30.05
97 Utah State 29.46
98 Duke 29.32
99 Arkansas St 29.12
100 San Jose 28.89
101 SMU 28.26
102 Miss St 26.86
103 La-Lafayette 26.80
104 East Carolina 26.07
105 Cent.Michigan 25.54
106 Idaho 24.73
107 Temple 24.16
108 North Texas 23.86
109 Middle Tenn 23.67
110 Akron 23.58
111 East.Michigan 22.98
112 Tulane 22.51
113 Kent 21.58
114 Ball State 21.26
115 West.Michigan 18.95
116 Central Florida 17.63
117 Buffalo 14.98