Ratings 10/23/04  
Ratings (October 23)

The computer-bashing in the press has already started. Sports Illustrated has an article that says that once again the BCS has it wrong, and the blame lies squarely on the computer rankings. It seems that the writer wanted Oklahoma #2 and not Miami as it was in the first release. Well, now Oklahoma's #2 in the BCS, but my computer still has it "wrong." The baseball controversy over the book "Moneyball" was whether there are objective standards in sports that can be used, or is it all so subtle that only the experts can correctly read the tea leaves? It hasn't been talked about much, but the Red Sox are now (like Oakland) a team that uses the new math extensively.

So perhaps the computers have a perspective that's worth considering. Of course, you have to put up with outrages like the computers not knowing that Utah doesn't belong in the top 6. Or that Boise State doesn't have points subtracted because they play on a blue carpet. I've never seen it mentioned that there is in fact an objective way of measuring rating systems: predicting games. My ratings had the worst week of the 10 or so I've documented over the years, but it was 25-24 against the spread and 39-10 picking winners.

This week should be a little more enjoyable for the couch potatoes. Last Saturday was rough, with an hour of flipping back and forth between the 7-3 ACC game and the 6-2 Big 10 game. The World Series is higher scoring than that! Plus several more examples of the college referees' law that any contact between players in the end zone is defensive pass interference. I shouldn't gripe -- it got Clemson a win and Notre Dame a loss -- but it doesn't seem very sporting. I hope that Va Tech fans are ready for the lob to Calvin Johnson. The big game this week is Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. The Cowboys had a big come from behind win at Missouri last week and always play the Sooners tough. It's Adrian Peterson versus Vernand Morency (get used to those names!). The following predictions are straight from the ratings, with 4 points added for home field.

Virginia Tech over Georgia Tech by 4 (big game for ACC and bowl positioning)
Oklahoma over Oklahoma State by 4 (the first of two huge road games for OU)
Georgia over Florida by 11 (the ratings don't know that Zook got the hook; we'll drink to that!)
California over Arizona State by 4 (the computer thinks it's #4 versus #5)
Michigan over Michigan State by 16 (the Wolverines try to stay unbeaten in the Big 10)
Ohio State over Penn State by 4 (didn't these teams used to be able to play?)
Wake Forest over Duke by 18 (a nice snack for Mr Peanut after some close losses)
Mississippi State over Kentucky by 2 (will Kentucky have to fire its coach, too?)
Florida State over Maryland by 19 (four losses in a row for the Twerps? Nothing to fear there)
Missouri over Nebraska by 2 (can the Huskers show Mizzou their new offense?)

1 Southern Cal 74.66
2 Miami F 69.54
3 Oklahoma 68.18
4 Arizona St 66.31
5 California 66.30
6 Utah 65.38
7 Florida State 64.19
8 Texas A&M 63.21
9 Auburn 62.44
10 Texas 61.09
11 Louisville 60.27
12 Oklahoma St 59.63
13 Tennessee 59.18
14 Boise St 58.49
15 Michigan 57.79
16 Georgia 57.63
17 Wisconsin 56.75
18 Purdue 56.25
19 Virginia 55.97
20 Virginia Tech 54.74
21 LSU 54.25
22 Notre Dame 53.94
23 Iowa 53.00
24 Stanford 52.97
25 Minnesota 52.37
26 Texas Tech 52.25
27 UTEP 51.77
28 UCLA 51.52
29 S Carolina 50.77
30 West Virginia 50.55
31 Alabama 50.09
32 BYU 49.63
33 NC State 49.60
34 Arkansas 49.46
35 Oregon St 49.06
36 Oregon 48.83
37 Colorado 48.35
38 Ohio State 47.88
39 UAB 47.56
40 Southern Miss 47.45
41 Missouri 47.18
42 Georgia Tech 46.69
43 Florida 46.48
44 Boston College 46.07
45 Clemson 46.05
46 Bowling Green 45.88
47 Navy 45.73
48 Northwestern 45.72
49 UNC 45.44
50 Kansas 45.36
51 Michigan St 45.14
52 New Mexico 45.08
53 UConn 44.37
54 Wake Forest 44.18
55 Air Force 43.65
56 Fresno St 43.62
57 Kansas State 43.05
58 La Tech 42.86
59 Colorado St 42.69
60 Washington St 42.21
61 Memphis 41.86
62 Wyoming 41.54
63 Nebraska 41.44
64 Pittsburgh 41.37
65 TCU 41.18
66 Maryland 41.05
67 Iowa State 40.83
68 Ole Miss 40.08
69 Syracuse 39.81
70 North.Illinois 39.80
71 Penn State 39.68
72 Marshall 39.42
73 Troy 38.78
74 UNLV 38.26
75 Cincinnati 38.10
76 Arizona 37.34
77 Toledo 37.13
78 Miami O 37.04
79 Indiana 35.79
80 San Diego St 35.48
81 Illinois 35.24
82 Washington 35.17
83 Rice 34.79
84 South Florida 34.14
85 Army 33.95
86 Houston 33.62
87 Hawaii 33.53
88 Kentucky 33.52
89 Rutgers 32.77
90 Vanderbilt 32.73
91 Nevada 32.13
92 Miss St 31.75
93 Baylor 30.23
94 Tulsa 30.13
95 Duke 30.08
96 Ohio 30.00
97 New Mexico St 29.55
98 Tulane 29.21
99 Utah State 29.07
100 La-Monroe 28.53
101 La-Lafayette 27.95
102 North Texas 27.52
103 East Carolina 27.43
104 SMU 26.63
105 Arkansas St 26.02
106 Middle Tenn 25.92
107 Akron 25.27
108 San Jose 25.18
109 Cent.Michigan 24.84
110 Temple 24.17
111 Idaho 21.84
112 Kent 21.76
113 East.Michigan 21.27
114 Ball State 19.34
115 West.Michigan 18.10
116 Central Florida 17.24
117 Buffalo 14.82