Ratings 10/28/06  
Ratings (10/28)

The Buckeyes are now on top of my ratings! Southern Cal's loss didn't shake up my ratings as much as the BCS, though. By the numbers, the Pac-10 is strong enough to rate two in the top four and two more in the top 20. For the BCS, let the arguing commence! It's possible that everyone will lose in the Big East scrum, and it's possible that Florida and Auburn will lose again, but the most likely outcome is that it will be an unbeaten Big East team or a one-loss SEC team in the title game. Here's a weird thought: what if Ohio State and Michigan are far and away 1-2 going into their game. are there any circumstances under which you'd keep them 1-2 for the bowls?

On that topic, the computer has a clear choice for SEC versus Big East. I count four SEC teams ranked above West Virginia. Maybe the computer's been reading all those West Virginia jokes that I get in email. One property that I like about my system is that if the argument is about "Which record is more impressive?" then I can give a precise answer based on the assumptions that go into my model. If the question is "Who deserves to be in the championship game?" then I think you go with intangibles as much as the numbers shown here. But, "Which teams would play the best game?" is an entirely different question. (See my question at the end of the last paragraph.)

We finally have all the preliminaries cleared out to focus on the big game, the one for which we've been waiting all year. Yes, Boston College at Wake Forest is finally here. Well, that West Virginia - Louisville game is also good. The winner of each game has the inside track, but no guarantee, of a championship. Wake in particular has a tough schedule remaining, and Rutgers awaits both WV and the Ville.

The following picks are straight from the ratings with 4 points added for home field.

Louisville over West Virginia by 6 (The computer has not been impressed by the Eers; will the Cards be?)
Boston College over Wake Forest by 3 (Can Wake handle the pressure? Can BC play a good road game?)
Florida State over Virginia by 9 (Bobby needs a win, Jeff needs points, to avoid the Chop-ping block.)
Virginia Tech over Miami by 6 (Can the Hokies play 2 good ones in a row? Can Miami play 1?)
Wisconsin over Penn State by 8 (The Badgers keep winning, the Lions are improving)
Nebraska over Missouri by 2 (For the Big 12 North lead, even though both got pounded by the Oklahomas last week)
Texas A&M over Oklahoma by 1 (The Aggies, 8-1, still have a shot at the Big 12 South)
Texas over Oklahoma State by 13 (A weird tradition: OS goes up by 30, Texas wins by 20)
Tulsa over Houston by 1 (Tulsa at 7-1 has been the class of Conference USA)
Arkansas over South Carolina by 3 (A must win for the Hogs if they're to stay in first place)
Tennessee over LSU by 4 (Game of the week based on the ratings here, not much love from talk show folks)

1 Ohio State 66.22
2 Florida 63.12
3 Southern Cal 62.43
4 California 62.28
5 Michigan 62.26
6 Louisville 60.61
7 Tennessee 59.69
8 LSU 59.54
9 Auburn 59.32
10 Texas 59.21
11 West Virginia 58.74
12 Rutgers 56.86
13 Notre Dame 56.80
14 Boise St 56.72
15 Oklahoma 55.45
16 Clemson 54.83
17 Washington St 54.70
18 Arkansas 54.02
19 Oregon 53.67
20 Boston College 53.31
21 Wisconsin 52.16
22 Texas A&M 51.98
23 Missouri 51.93
24 Virginia Tech 51.85
25 Georgia Tech 51.34
26 Oregon St 50.97
27 Pittsburgh 50.74
28 BYU 50.72
29 Nebraska 50.21
30 Tulsa 49.34
31 Hawaii 48.71
32 Alabama 48.11
33 Iowa 47.99
34 Penn State 47.85
35 Arizona St 47.30
36 Georgia 47.20
37 S Carolina 47.12
38 Oklahoma St 46.83
39 TCU 46.33
40 Wake Forest 46.02
41 Washington 45.71
42 UCLA 45.30
43 Maryland 45.02
44 Texas Tech 44.30
45 Houston 43.92
46 Navy 43.91
47 Cincinnati 43.76
48 Florida State 42.87
49 Kentucky 42.81
50 Kansas State 42.45
51 Miami F 42.35
52 Southern Miss 41.64
53 Ohio 41.34
54 Michigan St 40.93
55 Central Michigan 40.35
56 East Carolina 40.19
57 Indiana 40.06
58 Minnesota 39.80
59 Baylor 39.74
60 Nevada 39.64
61 West.Michigan 39.63
62 S. Florida 39.51
63 Middle Tenn 39.26
64 Utah 39.10
65 Vanderbilt 39.04
66 Arizona 38.87
67 Air Force 38.53
68 Purdue 38.52
69 Syracuse 38.47
70 Wyoming 38.31
71 Virginia 37.86
72 UConn 37.65
73 La-Lafayette 37.62
74 San Jose 36.81
75 Northern Illinois 36.29
76 Kansas 36.09
77 UTEP 35.97
78 NC State 35.59
79 New Mexico 34.66
80 Kent State 34.50
81 Ole Miss 34.47
82 Miss St 34.43
83 Tulane 33.77
84 SMU 33.66
85 Illinois 33.65
86 Rice 33.21
87 UAB 33.01
88 Marshall 32.60
89 Iowa State 32.48
90 Colorado St 32.35
91 Idaho 31.47
92 Army 31.33
93 Troy 30.85
94 Fresno St 30.00
95 Arkansas St 29.98
96 Colorado 29.95
97 Akron 29.59
98 Bowling Green 29.33
99 C. Florida 29.09
100 Florida Atlantic 28.85
101 New Mexico St 28.44
102 UNC 27.71
103 Toledo 26.98
104 Northwestern 26.98
105 Ball State 26.28
106 Stanford 25.52
107 La Tech 25.15
108 San Diego St 24.87
109 La-Monroe 24.79
110 Memphis 24.56
111 North Texas 23.70
112 UNLV 21.71
113 Duke 21.41
114 Utah State 20.40
115 East.Michigan 20.21
116 Miami O 20.03
117 Florida Int. 19.71
118 Buffalo 18.29
119 Temple 17.99