Ratings 10/29/05  
Ratings (10/29)

Last week was a bye week for many teams. Texas, UCLA and Florida State weren't supposed to have the week off, but by not showing up for the first half they made the evening interesting. That's UCLA's second miraculous comeback of the season and Texas' second straight ridiculous comeback against Oklahoma State (last year, down 35-7 at half before winning 49-35; this year, down 28-9 before winning 47-28).

My ratings are a combination of ratings that use only points for and points against and ratings that use only wins and losses. The "win" ratings tend to track the BCS computers well, since the BCS doesn't allow the use of points. This week Virginia Tech is #4 in my points ratings and (drum roll, please) #1 in the win ratings. It will be interesting to see how well Tech does in the BCS ratings that come out later today. If you want to know more about my rating system and other rating systems, come to Massengill Auditorium at 5:30 on Wednesday. I'm giving a talk as part of our departmental colloquium series.

This week's games will largely determine several conference championships. An obvious one of interest is Tech-Miami, with the winner probably being the ACC-Coastal champ. Florida State has magic number 1 to be the Atlantic champ. Not many Big East games have been played yet, but West Virginia has a commanding lead. Big 10 leaders Penn State and Wisconsin play Saturday; Ohio State is the only other team with 1 conference loss. In the Big 12 North, the Colorado-Missouri winner takes the lead. Texas has a lock on the South. In Conference USA, Southern Miss controls its destiny in the East and the UTEP/Tulsa winner leads the West. In the MAC, there is a 4-way tie in the East and Central Michigan leads in the West. The TCU/Colorado State winner should take the Mountain West. The Pac-10 figures to come down to USC-UCLA. In the SEC, Georgia still leads in the East but can't afford another loss. Alabama leads in the West but still has both LSU and Auburn remaining. The Sun Belt hopes that leaders Louisiana-Monroe and Arkansas State can get bowl eligible. The WAC will be determined by the Fresno State / Boise State game.

The computer seems to be putting out big spreads this week. The battles in Blacksburg and Happy Valley should be fun. I don't put any faith in the rumors that Tech will break out green jerseys for the game. The following predictions are straight from the ratings, with 4 points added for home field.

Virginia Tech over Miami by 11 (can the Hokies do better in the red zone?)
Penn State over Wisconsin by 11 (do the Badgers have one more upset W for Alvarez?)
Southern Cal over by Stanford by 27 (Walt Harris is a second-half coach, but SC is too much)
Colorado over Missouri by 12 (Brad Smith is great for the Tigers, can he get help?)
TCU over Colorado State by 9 (a loss to SMU is the only wart on TCU's 8-1 record)
UTEP over Tulsa by 6 (two pretty good teams we don't hear much about)
Virginia over Temple by 29 (tough season in the ACC for the Owls)
SMU over Rice by 8 (maybe Owls is a bad nickname)
1 Texas 71.03
2 Southern Cal 70.13
3 Virginia Tech 68.75
4 Penn State 68.60
5 Ohio State 65.86
6 Michigan 62.28
7 Notre Dame 61.79
8 Miami F 61.52
9 UCLA 61.28
10 Wisconsin 61.03
11 Alabama 60.71
12 LSU 60.60
13 Minnesota 58.90
14 Florida State 58.77
15 Oregon 58.45
16 Georgia 58.37
17 Texas Tech 58.35
18 Florida 57.47
19 Boston College 57.20
20 Northwestern 57.02
21 Colorado 56.76
22 Auburn 56.30
23 Michigan St 55.95
24 Louisville 55.37
25 West Virginia 55.24
26 Oklahoma 54.89
27 Georgia Tech 54.39
28 TCU 54.01
29 Arizona St 53.74
30 Iowa 51.70
31 South Florida 51.49
32 California 51.39
33 Fresno St 50.94
34 Nebraska 50.13
35 Clemson 49.94
36 Tennessee 49.57
37 S Carolina 49.29
38 Maryland 49.10
39 Colorado St 48.60
40 Missouri 48.38
41 UTEP 48.10
42 Iowa State 47.81
43 Virginia 47.32
44 Texas A&M 47.06
45 UNC 46.77
46 Stanford 46.66
47 Washington St 46.38
48 NC State 46.09
49 Central Michigan 46.01
50 Rutgers 45.95
51 Tulsa 45.90
52 Purdue 45.66
53 Toledo 45.47
54 Southern Miss 45.41
55 Miami O 45.18
56 BYU 45.09
57 Wake Forest 44.98
58 Pittsburgh 44.96
59 Oregon St 44.63
60 Indiana 44.40
61 Boise St 44.23
62 UConn 43.52
63 Houston 43.43
64 New Mexico 43.40
65 Central Florida 43.30
66 Baylor 43.24
67 Memphis 43.22
68 Wyoming 43.17
69 Kansas 42.65
70 Kansas State 42.50
71 Vanderbilt 42.29
72 Northern Illinois 41.58
73 Arkansas 41.45
74 Navy 40.18
75 Cincinnati 39.84
76 Utah 39.71
77 Ole Miss 39.05
78 Arizona 38.63
79 San Diego St 38.34
80 Washington 37.25
81 Bowling Green 37.08
82 Ohio 36.93
83 Marshall 36.93
84 La Tech 36.65
85 Oklahoma St 36.06
86 Illinois 35.93
87 Air Force 35.80
88 Nevada 35.54
89 West.Michigan 35.33
90 East Carolina 35.19
91 East.Michigan 35.17
92 Miss St 35.16
93 Akron 34.43
94 Arkansas St 34.14
95 Kentucky 33.93
96 Hawaii 33.74
97 UAB 33.06
98 Army 32.72
99 Syracuse 31.93
100 Middle Tenn 30.21
101 SMU 30.17
102 Ball State 30.05
103 Duke 29.72
104 Tulane 29.58
105 La-Monroe 29.12
106 La-Lafayette 28.47
107 Utah State 26.07
108 Rice 25.88
109 UNLV 25.48
110 Kent State 24.54
111 Troy 24.26
112 Florida Atlantic 23.66
113 Temple 22.40
114 New Mexico St 22.25
115 Idaho 22.21
116 North Texas 22.09
117 San Jose 20.01
118 Buffalo 19.03
119 Florida Int. 18.89