Ratings 11/3/07  
Ratings (11/3)

Just a couple of quick thoughts this week. First, congratulations to the Wahoos for another one-point win. Amazing! It does make it hard to figure out how good they are, though. Wake Forest is the second ACC team I've seen run off-tackle and settle for a 50-yard field goal attempt to win a game at the gun. Both missed. (Georgia Tech at Maryland was the other.) Is this really a good strategy?

Speaking of Clemson (I thought I was, with the main ideas being bad strategy and losing close games) I stumbled onto a nice mathematical paradox this week. The BCS uses the Harris Poll, the USA Today poll and the computers, averaged as equal thirds. So, Clemson is #20 in both the Harris and USA Today, and is #16 on the computers. Average those together and you get Clemson #21 in the BCS. Cute, isn't it? The explanation is that the "average" is not an average of the ordinal rankings but of the numbers that produced the rankings. One example: Hawaii is non-existent on the computers (they just cracked my top 50) but gets the same 0 computer points that #26 gets. Meanwhile, they rate high enough in the human polls (they are unbeaten, after all) to get enough poll points to reach #16 in the BCS.

The following predictions are straight from the ratings, with 4 points added for home field.

Virginia Tech over Florida State by 8 (can the Hokies lay some Beamer Ball on Wide Right U?)
Virginia over Miami by 4 (both Virginia teams favored over Florida teams? apocalyptic)
Clemson over Wake by 9 (Tigers are good, but can they beat a good team?)
Connecticut and Cincinnati even (important Big East game, but UConn/WV will be bigger)
Kansas over Oklahoma State by 7 (the Fat Man has KU putting up basketball scores)
Ohio State over Illinois by 15 (could be interesting if the Buckeyes are looking ahead to Meechigan)
Cal over Southern Cal by 2 (and yet more "End of the Dynasty" headlines if it happens)
Tennessee over Arkansas by 4 (the Vols try to retain their SEC East lead and keep the Hogs from running wild)
Florida over South Carolina by 4 (not the Big Game we expected, but Urban Ball Coaches are always fun)
Hawaii over Fresno State by 9 (Fresno's not terrible, but Hawaii is quite a road trip)

1 LSU 95.18
2 Oregon 94.80
3 Ohio State 92.50
4 Oklahoma 90.41
5 Arizona St 90.11
6 Kansas 89.78
7 West Virginia 89.29
8 Florida 89.26
9 Missouri 88.86
10 Boston College 87.48
11 Georgia 86.20
12 S. Florida 86.07
13 Virginia Tech 85.98
14 Clemson 85.43
15 UConn 85.28
16 Michigan 84.67
17 Alabama 84.36
18 Kentucky 83.87
19 Southern Cal 83.81
20 Auburn 83.56
21 Penn State 83.54
22 Texas 82.81
23 Florida State 81.95
24 California 81.75
25 Tennessee 81.69
26 Virginia 81.64
27 Arkansas 81.53
28 Illinois 81.06
29 Cincinnati 81.03
30 S Carolina 80.69
31 Boise St 80.50
32 Wake Forest 80.23
33 Purdue 80.11
34 Kansas State 78.97
35 Wisconsin 78.72
36 Oklahoma St 78.38
37 N Iowa 77.93
38 Rutgers 77.84
39 Vanderbilt 77.43
40 Texas Tech 77.39
41 Georgia Tech 76.89
42 Colorado 76.88
43 BYU 76.81
44 Texas A&M 75.69
45 Oregon St 75.61
46 Louisville 75.22
47 C. Florida 75.21
48 Troy 75.10
49 NC State 75.04
50 Hawaii 74.82
51 Miss St 74.67
52 Appalachian 74.64
53 Washington 74.49
54 Michigan St 74.42
55 UCLA 74.38
56 Air Force 74.19
57 Maryland 73.87
58 Utah 73.79
59 Miami F 73.64
60 East Carolina 72.77
61 UNC 72.14
62 Nebraska 71.85
63 TCU 71.71
64 N Dakota St 71.43
65 Indiana 71.33
66 Houston 71.11
67 Iowa 71.09
68 New Mexico 70.74
69 Arizona 70.70
70 Delaware 70.54
71 S Illinois 70.24
72 Wyoming 70.04
73 Fresno St 70.01
74 Navy 69.93
75 Pittsburgh 69.73
76 Washington St 69.28
77 Stanford 69.15
78 UMass 69.04
79 Ga South 68.94
80 Wofford 68.83
81 Central Michigan 68.74
82 Elon 68.44
83 Richmond 68.42
84 Ball State 68.26
85 Northwestern 67.85
86 Tulsa 67.64
87 Ole Miss 67.11
88 McNeese St 66.86
89 Middle Tenn 66.36
90 Bowling Green 66.36
91 JMU 66.34
92 Florida Atlantic 65.11
93 Miami O 64.95
94 New Hampshire 64.72
95 Southern Miss 64.68
96 Hofstra 64.54
97 Iowa State 64.13
98 San Diego St 63.90
99 Duke 63.59
100 Toledo 63.46
101 Nevada 63.34
102 Yale 63.31
103 Montana 63.21
104 West.Kentucky 63.16
105 Ohio 63.13
106 Notre Dame 63.07
107 Citadel 63.00
108 Youngstown 62.95
109 S Dakota St 62.86
110 Buffalo 62.19
111 Villanova 61.95
112 La Tech 61.85
113 Kent State 61.71
114 Arkansas St 61.35
115 W Illinois 60.93
116 Syracuse 60.83
117 Minnesota 60.42
118 Baylor 60.27
119 Akron 60.04
120 Army 60.00
121 E Kentucky 59.87
122 Furman 59.70
123 Colorado St 59.36
124 UNLV 59.28
125 UTEP 59.05
126 West.Michigan 59.03
127 Holy Cross 58.87
128 La-Monroe 58.68
129 Memphis 58.30
130 San Jose 57.96
131 Grambling 57.64
132 Temple 56.75
133 East.Michigan 55.96
134 New Mexico St 55.70
135 La-Lafayette 55.50
136 Dayton 55.28
137 Wm & Mary 55.19
138 Illinois St 54.65
139 Fordham 54.54
140 Cal Poly 54.50
141 Chattanooga 54.49
142 Marshall 54.44
143 Delaware St 54.44
144 Missouri St 54.12
145 Sam Houston 53.92
146 Liberty 53.82
147 Colgate 53.81
148 Harvard 53.80
149 E.Wash. 53.77
150 SC State 53.45
151 Central Ark 52.96
152 Tulane 52.70
153 UAB 52.47
154 Rice 52.25
155 N Arizona 52.14
156 Jacksonville St 52.13
157 Jackson St 51.79
158 San Diego 51.78
159 Alabama A&M 51.57
160 Rhode Island 51.36
161 Utah State 51.28
162 Albany 51.27
163 Northeastern 50.79
164 E Illinois 50.61
165 Nicholls St 50.24
166 Towson 50.13
167 Southern 50.12
168 UC Davis 49.86
169 Florida Int. 49.85
170 SMU 49.82
171 Maine 49.81
172 Gardner Webb 49.77
173 Norfolk St 49.63
174 W Carolina 49.42
175 Idaho 48.94
176 Texas St 48.66
177 Northern Illinois 48.50
178 North Texas 48.36
179 Lehigh 48.03
180 Stony Brook 47.53
181 Montana St 46.88
182 Weber St 46.87
183 Hampton 46.43
184 Dartmouth 46.01
185 Coastal Car 45.85
186 Brown 44.92
187 Lafayette 44.52
188 Cornell 44.46
189 Iona 44.04
190 Morehead 43.90
191 Winston Salem 43.23
192 Tenn St 42.93
193 Portland St 42.81
194 Penn 42.72
195 Austin Peay 42.32
196 Prairie View 42.06
197 S Utah 41.64
198 Drake 41.53
199 Alabama St 40.84
200 Morgan St 40.65
201 Sacramento St 40.57
202 SE La 40.28
203 NW State 40.17
204 Tenn Martin 39.74
205 Charleston S 39.30
206 Princeton 39.21
207 Davidson 39.00
208 Cen Conn 38.74
209 Idaho St 38.55
210 Samford 38.07
211 Ark PB 37.90
212 Florida A&M 37.81
213 Tenn Tech 37.65
214 Howard 37.58
215 Monmouth 37.05
216 Wagner 36.91
217 SF Austin 36.20
218 Murray St 34.27
219 Bethune Cookman 34.21
220 N Colorado 33.84
221 VMI 33.27
222 Bucknell 33.11
223 Duquesne 32.82
224 Robert Morris 32.04
225 Alcorn 31.95
226 Valparaiso 31.87
227 Miss Valley 31.74
228 Columbia 31.16
229 SE Missouri 30.33
230 Indiana St 29.50
231 Georgetown 27.51
232 Jacksonville 26.97
233 NC A&T 23.87
234 Sacred Heart 21.69
235 Butler 20.96
236 St Francis 20.71
237 Marist 20.41
238 Texas Southern 20.00
239 Savannah St 12.38
240 LaSalle 5.26