Ratings 11/05/05  
Ratings (11/05)

As Captain Jack Sparrow (played by Johnny Depp/Keith Richards in the movie Pirates of the Caribbean) said after watching an enemy pirate's body turned into a skeleton by the moonlight, "That's interesting." I'm glad my talk was last week and I don't have to explain why Penn State is ahead of Southern Cal and Virginia Tech is still ranked above Miami. Actually, the logic is simple, I'd just rather not give it to a large group of football fans. Both Tech and Miami have one loss. The computer has no clue how inferior Tech looked Saturday, and gives Tech a slight edge based on strength of schedule and point differential. As for Penn State and Southern Cal, is it more impressive to beat Wisconsin or Stanford (which earlier this year lost to UC-Davis)?

While I'm being defensive (as opposed to the usual offensive stance, I suppose), let me go ahead and address unbeaten Alabama still mired at #11. There's an interesting game we fans play. Tech looked bad against Miami, right? How about a team that didn't score an offensive touchdown against Mississippi State? Or that put up all of 6 points on Tennessee (well, Notre Dame only got 41 on the Vols)? We forgive Alabama because they won; Tech, however, lost. But, the point of computer ratings is to give an objective rating whose criteria are clear and precise and can be used as possible points of view. So that's what we've got here. It is at least "interesting" in a macabre way that this system still puts Tech ahead of Miami.

Which is the best conference this year? That's always good for a loud argument, especially when the SEC is not the answer. The SEC seems to be the knee-jerk response, but it's been several years since the conference was strong top to bottom. And that's what cost Auburn last year and might cost Alabama this year. Objectively, their unbeaten record is only worth #11 this year: their last 4 games have been against Ole Miss, Tennessee, Utah State and Miss State -- I know a lot of teams that would go through that stretch 4-0. So the ratings have 5 SEC teams in the top 22 and 7 in the top 42, but the other 5 are in the bottom 50. The ACC has 10 of its 12 teams in the top 41, and I don't think that that is far from the mark on the ACC's strength. I do suspect that the computer gives the Big 10 a little extra credit: 4 in the top 10 seems too much, although I won't argue with 9 in the top 39. It's not clear at all what's meant by "best conference" (most great teams? fewest bad teams? most obnoxious coaches? most balance?) but the ratings here suggest an order of Big 10, ACC, Big 12, SEC, Pac 10.

The WAC is decided on Thursday night, 3 big games in the SEC, Southern Cal visits Cal, the site of its last loss over two years ago, and the Bowdens have their annual family meeting to decide whether Bobby stays top 20 or Tommy keeps his job. The following predictions are straight from the ratings with 4 points added to the home team.

Fresno State by 9 over Boise State (2 enjoyable teams; neat matchup for Thursday night)
Florida State by 1 over Clemson (sounds right, the 4 Tiger losses have been by 11 total points)
Florida over South Carolina by 3 (Meyer versus Spurrier; will the players get on TV, too?)
Georgia Tech over Virginia by 4 (bowl implications here, but Hoo cares)
Alabama over LSU by 6 (the season starts for the Tide, and Auburn is next)
Georgia over Auburn by 5 (speaking of War Eagle; the Dawgs hope for a Shockley comeback)
Ohio State over Northwestern by 11 (the Buckeyes try to stay alive in the Big 10)
Southern Cal over Cal by 16 (the computer doesn't believe history will repeat)
Miami over Wake Forest by 18 (speaking of upsets that we'd love to see)
1 Texas 70.84
2 Penn State 69.47
3 Southern Cal 68.45
4 Virginia Tech 65.69
5 Miami F 64.74
6 Ohio State 64.38
7 Michigan 61.53
8 Notre Dame 61.26
9 Wisconsin 59.91
10 Texas Tech 59.47
11 Alabama 58.87
12 Minnesota 58.39
13 Oregon 57.95
14 Colorado 57.45
15 Northwestern 57.22
16 LSU 56.89
17 Georgia 56.57
18 Louisville 56.55
19 West Virginia 55.66
20 Florida State 55.58
21 Florida 55.36
22 Auburn 55.17
23 Georgia Tech 55.04
24 Boston College 54.23
25 TCU 54.20
26 UCLA 53.66
27 South Florida 53.43
28 Oklahoma 52.84
29 Michigan St 52.27
30 Arizona St 52.27
31 Iowa 50.78
32 UNC 50.42
33 Clemson 50.00
34 NC State 48.94
35 Fresno St 48.90
36 S Carolina 48.81
37 California 48.44
38 Iowa State 48.20
39 Purdue 48.10
40 Maryland 48.02
41 Virginia 47.44
42 Tennessee 47.32
43 UTEP 46.67
44 Nebraska 46.10
45 Missouri 45.75
46 Colorado St 45.58
47 Toledo 45.36
48 Southern Miss 45.32
49 Texas A&M 44.98
50 Stanford 44.85
51 Kansas 44.59
52 BYU 44.24
53 Miami O 44.22
54 Rutgers 43.93
55 Boise St 43.91
56 Oregon St 43.63
57 Central Florida 43.53
58 Central Michigan 43.32
59 Wake Forest 43.09
60 Pittsburgh 42.98
61 Arizona 42.93
62 Tulsa 42.87
63 Northern Illinois 42.66
64 Indiana 42.36
65 Utah 41.69
66 Baylor 41.56
67 UConn 41.38
68 New Mexico 41.14
69 Vanderbilt 41.01
70 Kansas State 40.48
71 Houston 40.20
72 Navy 39.78
73 Washington St 39.74
74 Arkansas 39.13
75 Cincinnati 39.02
76 Memphis 38.56
77 Wyoming 38.13
78 Ole Miss 36.93
79 Bowling Green 36.85
80 West.Michigan 36.55
81 San Diego St 36.45
82 Marshall 36.21
83 La Tech 35.90
84 UAB 35.49
85 Ohio 35.15
86 Nevada 34.70
87 Oklahoma St 34.69
88 Illinois 34.64
89 Miss St 34.03
90 East Carolina 33.96
91 Washington 33.95
92 Kentucky 33.15
93 East.Michigan 33.04
94 Army 33.03
95 Middle Tenn 32.74
96 Air Force 32.69
97 Akron 32.63
98 Ball State 31.40
99 SMU 30.61
100 Syracuse 30.57
101 Hawaii 30.38
102 Arkansas St 29.42
103 Duke 28.81
104 La-Lafayette 28.46
105 Tulane 27.23
106 Troy 25.35
107 La-Monroe 24.57
108 Utah State 24.17
109 Kent State 23.39
110 UNLV 22.63
111 Rice 22.54
112 Temple 21.74
113 Florida Atlantic 21.28
114 North Texas 20.72
115 Florida Int. 20.69
116 New Mexico St 19.43
117 Idaho 19.24
118 San Jose 19.05
119 Buffalo 17.76