Ratings 11/6/04  
Ratings (November 6)

Call this past weekend "Survival Saturday." #1 USC survived a dense fog both literally and figuratively in winning at Oregon State. Oklahoma survived a fake punt and a fake field goal for touchdowns and the ultimate revenge motivation by gigging the Aggies. Texas survived a 35-7 deficit with its biggest comeback ever, a 49-point blitz of Oklahoma State. Iowa survived its 6th lost running back of the season (and 4th ACL) to beat Purdue and remain one game back in the Big 10. In an odd way, Miami survived a fake field goal and an overtime loss by good scheduling; the Canes still would win the ACC if they beat the Hoos and Hokies.

I had the pleasure this weekend of hearing a math talk by Kenneth Massey. He's the Virginia Tech grad student whose rating system has been one of the BCS computer systems since its inception. He's also one of the nicest people you'll ever meet. In one of those odd connections that makes math a fascinating subject (really!), it turns out that Massey's system is conceptually the same as the system that Google uses to order the web sites it returns to you from a search. Very cool. And how cool would it be to be a grad student and be part of the BCS?

If you're at all idealistic about college athletics, you've got to love the academies. John Feinstein's book Civil War: Army vs Navy is an eye-opener. It seems that Air Force has been disappointed with bad finishes to seasons after fast starts. So they have a physiologist studying their players to see how they respond or don't respond to football workouts and (imagine this!) academic stress. And they're actually open to input! "It will be great to learn a little bit, from a science perspective, exactly what's going on," senior linebacker John Rudzinski said. "The way athletics is now, there's a premium on size, there's a premium on covering all your bases, and that's another variable we hope we can get in and control." Maybe he, ya' know, chest-thumped and danced his way out of the interview room.

The experts are always entertaining. In a recent BCS discussion, an ESPN panel unanimously agreed that an unbeaten Auburn team unquestionably should qualify for the Orange Bowl. As should an unbeaten Oklahoma team. And an unbeaten USC team. And if any of them don't, it's because the misguided BCS computers don't understand how hard it is to get through the SEC/Big12/Pac10 unbeaten.

Big game Saturday in Charlottesville! Welcome to the ACC, Miami! Most weeks you need to play all four quarters. Back in the Big East, the championship will probably be decided by West Virginia versus Boston College (#31 vs #48 in my list). Wisconsin and Michigan try to stay unbeaten in the Big 10. Auburn gets old nemesis Georgia, at home. The following predictions are straight from the ratings, with 4 points added for home field.

Virginia over Miami by 3 (three losses in a row for Miami?)
Florida State over NC State by 9 (but NCS has won 2 of the last 3 over FSU, and needs a win)
West Virginia over Boston College by 8 (the Eers qualify for a BCS game with a win)
Michigan over Northwestern by 14 (NW is somehow 4-2 in the Big 10, winning the close ones)
Wisconsin over Michigan State by 11 (the Badgers are still unbeaten, and mostly unloved)
Northern Illinois over Toledo by 9 (Tuesday night football! UNI is unbeaten in the MAC)
Oregon over UCLA by 4 (two good 5-4 teams that need a win)
Oklahoma over Nebraska by 31 (at 3-3 Nebraska is in first in the Big 12 North!)
Auburn over Georgia by 7 (crunch time for War Eagle; can they run on the Dawgs?)
LSU over Alabama by 9 (bowl implications but not much else. Bama may look ahead to Auburn)

1 Southern Cal 72.96
2 Oklahoma 69.71
3 California 69.33
4 Arizona St 64.68
5 Texas 64.25
6 Utah 63.70
7 Auburn 60.93
8 Boise St 60.88
9 Miami F 59.01
10 Florida State 58.78
11 Texas A&M 58.59
12 Wisconsin 58.44
13 Louisville 58.29
14 Virginia 57.86
15 Michigan 57.76
16 Georgia 57.42
17 Tennessee 56.95
18 Oklahoma St 56.84
19 Virginia Tech 55.75
20 Iowa 55.18
21 Texas Tech 54.10
22 Notre Dame 54.10
23 LSU 53.70
24 Purdue 52.92
25 Oregon St 51.74
26 UCLA 51.65
27 Oregon 51.22
28 UTEP 51.09
29 Ohio State 50.98
30 Stanford 50.59
31 West Virginia 50.38
32 S Carolina 50.35
33 BYU 50.29
34 Clemson 49.82
35 Colorado 48.72
36 Alabama 48.66
37 Northwestern 48.37
38 Arkansas 48.37
39 Minnesota 47.40
40 Georgia Tech 47.39
41 New Mexico 47.20
42 UNC 46.95
43 Washington St 46.40
44 Fresno St 46.25
45 Florida 46.12
46 Bowling Green 45.84
47 NC State 45.80
48 Boston College 45.69
49 Southern Miss 44.77
50 Iowa State 44.59
51 UAB 44.58
52 Maryland 44.54
53 Wyoming 43.98
54 Cincinnati 43.95
55 Kansas State 43.94
56 Wake Forest 43.72
57 Michigan St 43.60
58 Syracuse 43.31
59 Kansas 42.82
60 Nebraska 42.63
61 Missouri 42.62
62 Memphis 42.40
63 UConn 41.56
64 Air Force 41.50
65 Colorado St 40.67
66 North.Illinois 40.20
67 TCU 39.76
68 Navy 39.58
69 Ole Miss 39.52
70 Arizona 39.38
71 Pittsburgh 39.20
72 Troy 39.16
73 Miami O 38.98
74 La Tech 38.44
75 Penn State 38.34
76 Indiana 37.62
77 South Florida 37.40
78 Marshall 37.16
79 UNLV 36.60
80 Illinois 36.31
81 Baylor 35.58
82 San Diego St 35.37
83 Houston 34.63
84 Toledo 34.52
85 New Mexico St 34.32
86 Hawaii 33.72
87 Rutgers 33.28
88 Washington 33.15
89 Miss St 32.93
90 North Texas 32.49
91 Nevada 31.85
92 Vanderbilt 31.74
93 Tulane 31.45
94 Duke 30.84
95 Army 30.82
96 Kentucky 29.96
97 Rice 29.84
98 Tulsa 29.17
99 East Carolina 29.10
100 Akron 28.82
101 La-Monroe 28.10
102 Kent 27.02
103 Middle Tenn 26.85
104 La-Lafayette 26.77
105 Ohio 26.54
106 SMU 26.24
107 Utah State 25.45
108 Temple 24.62
109 Cent.Michigan 24.14
110 Idaho 23.31
111 San Jose 23.26
112 East.Michigan 23.16
113 Arkansas St 23.16
114 Ball State 19.28
115 Central Florida 17.64
116 West.Michigan 16.93
117 Buffalo 14.28