Ratings 11/16/02  
Ratings (November 16)

A nice calm week for the BCS, right? Ohio State had a scare but won, Miami had the week off so there's no problem about 1-2. Texas lost a Kliff-hanger to TTech, so we drop them down but otherwise it was a week off before the big games this week. Except that the BCS computers don't see it that way. They are constantly updated, so they constantly change, even if we'd rather not think about it. We greatly prefer a solid base that only changes every now and then, and only changes for predictable, understandable reasons. Before I burst into a full blown Stephen Jay Gould essay, let me get to my computer ratings. Yup, Southern Cal's #1. Last week's #1 Oklahoma won by 40 over Baylor, so how can they be dropped to #3? Well, mostly because they played #98 Baylor, and that trashed the Sooners' strength of schedule. If you don't like that, here's a different spin: both last week and this week showed a 3-way tie among Miami, Oklahoma and Southern Cal. Ohio State stays #4, Texas gets replaced at #5 by Kansas State. That almost sounds logical, doesn't it?

It was a great week for the bottom 6, as two teams won! Army rolled over the Tulane highway, and SMU beat UTEP in a battle for low acronym. Both teams are now in the top 114! Three teams heading from the top down try to reverse the trend. NC State has lost 3 in a row, with only Florida State left. Virginia Tech has lost 2 in a row, with West Virginia, Virginia and Miami left. Bowling Green got the scheduling done right; after 2 losses, they get #113 Eastern Michigan.

The conference races are winding up. Florida State has won the ACC, Miami has 3 Big East games left, Ohio State needs to beat Meechigan to join Iowa as co-Big 10 champs (the Buckeyes win the tie-breaker of better overall record), Oklahoma needs 2 wins and Colorado 1 to reach the Big 12 championship game, Washington State needs to win one of two conference games to win the Pac 10, Georgia has won the SEC East, nobody can win the SEC West.

This is Rivalry Week! Border rivalries include Tech-WV on Wednesday night, and UVa-Maryland and Michigan-Ohio State. In-state wars include Oregon-Oregon State, Auburn-Alabama, Clemson-Chickens, UNC-Duke (hey, somebody's going to win a game ... eventually), BYU-Youths, Washington-WSU. And you've even got in-city rivals USC-UCLA. A great Saturday for the big TV chair with lots of food (you've got to prepare your stomach for Thanksgiving).

A lot of games to track this week, starting with the Big East games on Wednesday and Thursday. The following predictions are straight from the ratings, with 4 points added for the home team.

Virginia Tech over West Virginia by 7
Miami over Pittsburgh by 16
Alabama over Auburn by 12
Clemson over Chickens by 6
Duke over North Carolina by 2 !!
Oklahoma over Texas Tech by 14
Florida State over NC State by 4
Southern Cal over UCLA by 5
Utah over BYU by 5
Maryland over Virginia by 3
Ohio State over Michigan by 8
Oregon State over Oregon by 6
California over Band by 17
Washington State over Washington by 13

1 Southern Cal 64.88
2 Miami 64.81
3 Oklahoma 64.00
4 Ohio State 62.87
5 Kansas State 61.80
6 Iowa 61.51
7 Alabama 60.65
8 Georgia 60.59
9 Florida State 59.62
10 Texas 59.50
11 Notre Dame 58.99
12 Wash State 58.43
13 Michigan 58.41
14 Colorado 57.54
15 Penn State 57.42
16 Maryland 56.84
17 Arkansas 56.58
18 Florida 55.58
19 UCLA 55.50
20 Virginia Tech 54.04
21 Texas Tech 53.78
22 LSU 53.50
23 Colorado St 53.26
24 Pittsburgh 52.47
25 Auburn 52.39
26 Boise 52.38
27 Iowa State 52.33
28 South Florida 52.14
29 Oregon St 52.09
30 California 51.74
31 NC State 51.71
32 West Virginia 50.95
33 TCU 50.40
34 Tennessee 50.36
35 Georgia Tech 49.92
36 Oregon 49.85
37 Kentucky 49.76
38 Virginia 49.64
39 Washington 49.45
40 Boston College 49.40
41 Air Force 48.05
42 Arizona St 48.00
43 Texas A&M 47.98
44 Nebraska 47.95
45 Wisconsin 47.84
46 Clemson 47.80
47 Bowling Green 47.59
48 Louisville 47.50
49 Minnesota 46.92
50 Purdue 46.90
51 Missouri 46.58
52 Wake Forest 46.53
53 Cincinnati 46.19
54 Southern Miss 45.15
55 S Carolina 45.05
56 Mississippi 45.01
57 Miami O 44.86
58 Toledo 44.81
59 North Ill 44.68
60 Illinois 43.92
61 Oklahoma St 43.81
62 Marshall 42.38
63 Hawaii 42.16
64 North Texas 40.88
65 Arizona 39.85
66 Michigan St 39.50
67 Stanford 38.72
68 Fresno 38.56
69 Temple 37.56
70 Utah 37.49
71 New Mexico 37.35
72 UCF 37.02
73 UConn 36.94
74 Syracuse 36.93
75 NM State 36.51
76 Tulane 36.29
77 Miss State 35.70
78 BYU 35.56
79 North Carolina 35.22
80 Ball State 34.92
81 Nevada 33.98
82 San Jose 33.82
83 Vanderbilt 33.77
84 East Carolina 33.49
85 UAB 33.48
86 Duke 33.10
87 Indiana 32.44
88 Northwestern 32.35
89 UNLV 32.33
90 San Diego St 31.47
91 Western Mich 31.35
92 Houston 31.26
93 Utah State 31.16
94 Baylor 30.43
95 Troy State 30.38
96 Memphis 30.27
97 La Tech 30.11
98 Ohio 29.88
99 Central Mich 29.42
100 La-Lafayette 28.94
101 Mid Tenn 28.81
102 Akron 28.37
103 Wyoming 28.16
104 Arkansas St 27.93
105 Rice 26.24
106 Kansas 25.65
107 Kent State 24.47
108 Rutgers 24.46
109 Idaho 24.46
110 Navy 22.33
111 SMU 21.84
112 La-Monroe 20.51
113 Eastern Mich 20.42
114 Army 19.77
115 Tulsa 19.05
116 UTEP 18.63
117 Buffalo 16.89