Ratings 11/19/05  
Ratings (11/19)

This week's topics are politics and high anxiety. There has been a lot of discussion recently about the bias of the eastern press as directed against Mr. Bush. No, I'm not about to drop an L-bomb on you; we're talking Heisman Trophy here. One of the questions is whether enough of the press saw Reggie Bush pile up 513 all-purpose yards against Fresno State. 513 yards! Surely he wrapped up the Heisman with that performance and his great game against Notre Dame. But, wait, we easterners are a little suspicious of Fresno's defense, and when you return kickoffs for a team that gives up 42 points you have a good chance of racking up a baroque yardage total. The general wisdom is that Bush and Leinart split the USC vote and give the Heisman to Vince Young. Perhaps the more interesting question is why Drew Olson isn't getting more attention. Who? That would be the UCLA quarterback; 67.7% completion rate, 2909 yards passing, 30 TD's, 3 int's, two second-half comebacks from 20+ points behind. The one in Brady Quinn's shadow; you know Brady, 64.9% completion rate, 29 TD's, 5 int's, NOTRE DAME! The biased press. But I'm just being a nattering nabob of negativism.

Between Bush and Olson and their buddies, the USC-UCLA game on December 3 should be a blast. I wonder if we'll see it. I always worry that a TV executive may protect my sheltered area of Virginia from national influences by showing me a good Hampden-Sydney game or something else of local interest. But the real high anxiety of this time of year is being a fan of an ACC team that might go to the Boise Bowl. I've seen three national projections of bowl games, with three different ACC teams in that dreaded slot. What's so bad about Boise? The game's on December 28, not anywhere near Florida, possibly against a good team (Boise State) that can give you an embarrassing loss, on blue artificial turf. I'm thinking that Boston College should get a proper ACC welcome by getting to go to Boise.

This year has given some interesting lessons in how human logic differs from basic numerical analysis. Last week, I felt like I had to defend Virginia Tech over Miami. This week it seems odd that Miami is still right behind Tech. The point differential between them has grown from 0.9 to 4.06, but they still are #5 and #6. Another oddity is 7-4 Michigan at #7. But, if you buy that strength of schedule is important, then you may have just bought into not dropping a team in the rankings when they lose to a higher-ranked team. Personally, I think that this is one reason that my system is better for predicting games than for ranking teams. I do think that a 7-4 team shouldn't be top 10 (unless it's a team that wins 5 of their last 6 including Florida State and South Carolina).

There are several important games this week. The ACC and Big 12 have games to finalize division championships, the Big East continues to work on a champion, and there are two ACC-SEC in-state rivalry games. The following predictions are straight from the ratings with 4 points added for home field.

Virginia Tech over North Carolina by 22 (can the Hokies cash in on Miami's holiday gift?)
Miami over Virginia by 17 (bad timing for the Hoos; a mad Miami is bad news)
NC State over Maryland by 2 (the winner is bowl eligible; a trip to Boise, perhaps?)
Colorado over Nebraska by 11 (the Buffs would move on to face Texas with a win)
Texas over Texas A&M by 23 (a tough gig for the Aggies, finishing a disappointing season)
West Virginia over Pitt by 16 (the Backyard Brawl; WVU still has a trip to Florida, though)
Georgia Tech over Georgia by 4 (the Dawgs have struggled, and the championship game awaits)
Florida over Florida State by 2 (two teams in need of a good performance in the Swamp)
1 Texas 72.27
2 Penn State 69.29
3 Southern Cal 69.24
4 Ohio State 67.78
5 Virginia Tech 67.00
6 Miami F 62.94
7 Michigan 61.26
8 Notre Dame 60.90
9 Oregon 59.12
10 Louisville 58.94
11 Wisconsin 58.25
12 Auburn 58.24
13 Minnesota 57.80
14 Boston College 57.71
15 LSU 57.52
16 Texas Tech 57.26
17 West Virginia 57.20
18 Iowa 56.44
19 UCLA 56.21
20 Northwestern 55.70
21 Georgia Tech 55.66
22 Georgia 55.55
23 Colorado 55.07
24 TCU 55.04
25 Alabama 54.75
26 Florida State 54.12
27 South Florida 53.94
28 Clemson 53.93
29 Oklahoma 53.64
30 Iowa State 52.32
31 Florida 52.14
32 Arizona St 51.49
33 Michigan St 51.26
34 Fresno St 50.87
35 Purdue 50.80
36 California 50.18
37 Virginia 49.83
38 S Carolina 49.66
39 Maryland 49.52
40 UNC 48.74
41 NC State 47.90
42 Nebraska 47.49
43 Missouri 45.86
44 Texas A&M 45.58
45 Tennessee 45.07
46 Pittsburgh 44.97
47 Stanford 44.68
48 Northern Illinois 44.62
49 Tulsa 44.44
50 BYU 44.30
51 Kansas 44.02
52 UTEP 43.99
53 Toledo 43.97
54 Wake Forest 43.59
55 Central Florida 43.27
56 Boise St 43.05
57 Rutgers 42.78
58 Baylor 42.58
59 Colorado St 42.49
60 Arkansas 42.34
61 Central Michigan 42.28
62 Miami O 42.11
63 Oregon St 42.00
64 Utah 41.79
65 Washington St 41.63
66 Southern Miss 41.51
67 Kansas State 41.49
68 San Diego St 41.43
69 Indiana 41.29
70 Arizona 40.87
71 Navy 40.52
72 Vanderbilt 40.44
73 Bowling Green 40.18
74 UConn 40.02
75 New Mexico 39.91
76 West.Michigan 39.28
77 Memphis 39.20
78 Houston 39.11
79 Oklahoma St 38.16
80 Cincinnati 37.95
81 UAB 37.15
82 Washington 36.67
83 Army 36.50
84 Air Force 35.86
85 Akron 35.84
86 Wyoming 35.69
87 Nevada 35.61
88 La Tech 35.07
89 Ole Miss 34.96
90 Kentucky 34.80
91 Illinois 34.72
92 East Carolina 34.52
93 Ball State 34.13
94 Marshall 33.97
95 Ohio 33.58
96 SMU 33.33
97 East.Michigan 32.53
98 Hawaii 32.04
99 Syracuse 31.71
100 Miss St 31.62
101 Duke 30.04
102 Middle Tenn 29.98
103 Arkansas St 29.39
104 La-Lafayette 29.25
105 La-Monroe 27.35
106 Rice 25.87
107 Troy 24.91
108 Tulane 24.61
109 UNLV 23.71
110 Florida Atlantic 22.87
111 Utah State 22.42
112 Temple 22.15
113 Kent State 21.95
114 San Jose 21.36
115 Florida Int. 20.68
116 Idaho 19.91
117 Buffalo 19.01
118 North Texas 18.87
119 New Mexico St 17.22