Ratings 11/29/08
Oh, the outrage! How could Oklahoma jump Texas? Relying on the polls and computers is a horrible way to solve anything. And yet, the argument for Texas starts with using the polls to eliminate Texas Tech. Then you use head-to-head to pick Texas. Does that really make sense? To my mind, the 3-way tie is a legitimate 3-way tie between great teams with 11-1 records. The whole "ignore Tech" thing seems to me to be the standard big-boy bias against schools that haven't already won multiple national championships. So, here is an "objective" view. Counting Oklahoma State as a legitimate top-ten team, the round robin among the four teams only includes one road win -- Oklahoma over Oklahoma State. Texas gets half a point for a neutral site win, but Oklahoma has a full point for Saturday's win. Or, you could look at out-of-conference schedules and give it to Oklahoma for playing TCU and Cincinnati. Or, leave it to my computer, which like the BCS computers jumped Oklahoma over Texas because of strength of schedule.
In a way, the national semifinals are this weekend. The winner of Alabama-Florida advances. Probably the winner of Oklahoma-Texas advances. The only thing is that Texas has to give its proxy to Missouri. Stranger things have happened in the Big 12 Championship game than a Missouri upset. It's basically a home game for the Tigers. If the upset happens, Texas is next in line.
The conferences got lucky in the sense that only the ACC has a rematch for their championship game. And that is a rematch of last year's rematch. The MAC, Big 12 and CUSA were very unbalanced, with most of the good teams in the same division. But that's part of the process we have now.
For those of you who want a playoff, the D-3 and FCS playoffs have reached the quarterfinals. FCS is the division formerly known as 1-AA. The initials stand for Football Championship Series, since they play a championship series. The 1-A's play a bowl series, so for their acronym F is followed by BS. Predictions are included below. The D-3 predictions come from using the rating system on games exclusive to D-3. The ratings went 5-3 last week, in a week in which the NCAA seedings (and therefore the home field) only went 3-5. The ratings currently have Wisconsin-Whitewater a slight favorite over Mount Union for the championship in Salem. That, of course, has been the matchup the last three years running.
The following predictions are straight from the ratings, with 4 points added for home field, where appropriate.
Navy over Army by 17 (One of the great traditions, even if the game hasn't been good lately.)
Southern Cal over UCLA by 27 (I'm not sure a crosstown trip is worth 4 points, but does it matter?)
MAC: Ball State over Buffalo by 12 (Very cool that the Bulls made it this far, but ...)
CUSA: Tulsa over East Carolina by 4 (Both teams seem to have righted the ship after midseason slumps.)
ACC: Boston College over Virginia Tech by 2 (It depends on which QB's show up for which team.)
SEC: Florida over Alabama by 8 (The Gators look unbeatable, but Saban's a good big game coach.)
BIG 12: Oklahoma over Missouri by 11 (And "Big Game" Bob Stoops has not done well in games like this.)
FCS Playoffs
JMU over Villanova by 11
Montana over Weber State by 6
Appalachian State over Richmond by 6
Northern Iowa over New Hampshire by 0.1
D3 Playoffs
Mount Union over Cortland by 25
Franklin over Wheaton by 3
Wisconsin-Whitewater over Wartburg by 21
Mary-Hardin Baylor over Washington & Jefferson by 22
1 | Florida | 99.98 |
2 | Oklahoma | 98.33 |
3 | Texas | 98.05 |
4 | Southern Cal | 97.61 |
5 | Penn State | 93.59 |
6 | Texas Tech | 92.95 |
7 | Alabama | 91.91 |
8 | Utah | 90.82 |
9 | Ohio State | 88.48 |
10 | TCU | 87.74 |
11 | Missouri | 87.59 |
12 | Boise St | 87.12 |
13 | Georgia | 86.54 |
14 | Oklahoma St | 86.53 |
15 | Oregon | 85.67 |
16 | Florida St | 85.20 |
17 | Boston College | 84.85 |
18 | Georgia Tech | 84.74 |
19 | California | 84.28 |
20 | Oregon St | 84.27 |
21 | Mississippi | 84.25 |
22 | North Carolina | 84.19 |
23 | Iowa | 84.06 |
24 | Clemson | 83.11 |
25 | Michigan St | 82.97 |
26 | Cincinnati | 82.77 |
27 | Nebraska | 82.73 |
28 | Brigham Young | 82.68 |
29 | Ball St | 82.52 |
30 | Virginia Tech | 82.47 |
31 | Wake Forest | 82.29 |
32 | Pittsburgh | 82.18 |
33 | Miami FL | 80.95 |
34 | South Carolina | 80.40 |
35 | Northwestern | 80.13 |
36 | West Virginia | 79.90 |
37 | James Madison | 79.70 |
38 | Kansas | 79.65 |
39 | Connecticut | 79.06 |
40 | Tulsa | 78.46 |
41 | LSU | 78.39 |
42 | North Carolina St | 78.37 |
43 | Arizona | 77.95 |
44 | Maryland | 77.88 |
45 | South Florida | 77.65 |
46 | Wisconsin | 77.30 |
47 | Virginia | 76.98 |
48 | Vanderbilt | 76.49 |
49 | Rutgers | 76.38 |
50 | Navy | 76.26 |
51 | Air Force | 76.00 |
52 | Rice | 75.43 |
53 | Duke | 75.14 |
54 | Notre Dame | 74.95 |
55 | Appalachian St | 74.79 |
56 | East Carolina | 74.13 |
57 | Baylor | 74.03 |
58 | Arizona St | 73.50 |
59 | Minnesota | 73.43 |
60 | Illinois | 73.37 |
61 | Stanford | 73.31 |
62 | Tennessee | 73.14 |
63 | Richmond | 73.03 |
64 | Kentucky | 73.01 |
65 | Western Michigan | 72.97 |
66 | Nevada | 72.90 |
67 | Villanova | 72.71 |
68 | Houston | 72.39 |
69 | Arkansas | 71.84 |
70 | Colorado | 71.78 |
71 | Auburn | 71.61 |
72 | Purdue | 71.24 |
73 | Wofford | 70.78 |
74 | Central Michigan | 70.63 |
75 | Buffalo | 70.55 |
76 | Hawai`i | 70.40 |
77 | Kansas St | 70.32 |
78 | Colorado St | 70.04 |
79 | Troy | 69.77 |
80 | Southern Miss | 69.50 |
81 | Montana | 69.37 |
82 | New Hampshire | 69.23 |
83 | Louisville | 68.70 |
84 | Fresno St | 68.65 |
85 | Texas A&M | 68.19 |
86 | Bowling Green | 68.05 |
87 | New Mexico | 67.93 |
88 | Northern Illinois | 67.22 |
89 | Weber St | 67.15 |
90 | Louisiana Tech | 67.13 |
91 | UNLV | 67.07 |
92 | William & Mary | 67.03 |
93 | Michigan | 67.02 |
94 | UCLA | 66.66 |
95 | Temple | 66.29 |
96 | Cal Poly SLO | 65.93 |
97 | Mississippi St | 65.60 |
98 | Memphis | 65.38 |
99 | Northern Iowa | 65.27 |
100 | UTEP | 65.07 |
101 | San José St | 64.81 |
102 | Elon | 64.73 |
103 | Akron | 64.65 |
104 | Syracuse | 63.97 |
105 | Arkansas St | 63.68 |
106 | Florida Atlantic | 63.63 |
107 | Massachusetts | 63.50 |
108 | Marshall | 63.15 |
109 | Harvard | 62.55 |
110 | Furman | 62.09 |
111 | Central Florida | 62.06 |
112 | Indiana | 61.90 |
113 | Middle Tennessee St | 61.86 |
114 | Iowa St | 61.78 |
115 | Southern Illinois | 61.71 |
116 | Liberty | 61.62 |
117 | Maine | 61.58 |
118 | Samford | 61.52 |
119 | Ohio U. | 61.47 |
120 | Utah St | 61.45 |
121 | Georgia Southern | 61.44 |
122 | Wyoming | 61.32 |
123 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 61.20 |
124 | Central Arkansas | 60.12 |
125 | Florida Int'l | 59.63 |
126 | Army | 59.55 |
127 | Eastern Washington | 58.96 |
128 | Kent St | 58.85 |
129 | Alabama-Birmingham | 58.10 |
130 | Toledo | 57.87 |
131 | Washington | 57.47 |
132 | South Carolina St | 57.23 |
133 | Jacksonville St | 57.15 |
134 | South Dakota St | 56.95 |
135 | Colgate | 56.95 |
136 | Brown | 56.95 |
137 | Holy Cross | 56.75 |
138 | Delaware | 56.74 |
139 | Eastern Michigan | 56.60 |
140 | San Diego St | 56.34 |
141 | McNeese St | 56.15 |
142 | The Citadel | 55.57 |
143 | Western Kentucky | 55.16 |
144 | North Dakota St | 54.95 |
145 | Louisiana-Monroe | 54.77 |
146 | Lafayette | 54.60 |
147 | New Mexico St | 54.52 |
148 | Washington St | 54.39 |
149 | Eastern Kentucky | 54.33 |
150 | Montana St | 54.31 |
151 | SMU | 54.25 |
152 | Tennessee-Martin | 54.24 |
153 | Northern Arizona | 54.03 |
154 | Western Illinois | 53.99 |
155 | Pennsylvania | 53.86 |
156 | Tulane | 53.85 |
157 | Miami OH | 53.70 |
158 | Hofstra | 53.56 |
159 | Yale | 53.39 |
160 | Texas St-San Marcos | 52.68 |
161 | Albany NY | 51.42 |
162 | Tennessee St | 51.33 |
163 | Northwestern St | 50.88 |
164 | Sacramento St | 50.56 |
165 | Lehigh | 50.36 |
166 | Florida A&M | 50.10 |
167 | Grambling St | 49.81 |
168 | Charleston Southern | 49.74 |
169 | Northeastern | 49.69 |
170 | Stony Brook | 49.64 |
171 | Coastal Carolina | 49.05 |
172 | Idaho | 48.85 |
173 | Sam Houston St | 48.66 |
174 | Rhode Island | 48.48 |
175 | Towson | 48.41 |
176 | UC-Davis | 48.29 |
177 | Western Carolina | 48.06 |
178 | Gardner-Webb | 47.46 |
179 | Princeton | 47.13 |
180 | Eastern Illinois | 46.80 |
181 | Missouri St | 46.73 |
182 | Nicholls St | 46.66 |
183 | Prairie View A&M | 46.20 |
184 | SE Louisiana St | 46.03 |
185 | Jacksonville FL | 45.85 |
186 | Southern Utah | 45.84 |
187 | Youngstown St | 45.50 |
188 | Portland St | 45.43 |
189 | VMI | 45.27 |
190 | Monmouth NJ | 45.24 |
191 | Bethune-Cookman | 45.19 |
192 | North Texas | 44.99 |
193 | San Diego | 44.81 |
194 | Illinois St | 44.80 |
195 | Cornell NY | 44.72 |
196 | Fordham | 44.17 |
197 | Central Conn St | 43.41 |
198 | Morgan St | 43.19 |
199 | Stephen F. Austin | 43.15 |
200 | Hampton | 43.15 |
201 | Chattanooga | 42.77 |
202 | South Dakota | 42.51 |
203 | Dayton | 42.20 |
204 | Northern Colorado | 42.07 |
205 | Southern U. | 41.63 |
206 | North Dakota | 41.26 |
207 | Murray St | 41.17 |
208 | Bucknell | 41.03 |
209 | Norfolk St | 40.87 |
210 | Delaware St | 40.69 |
211 | Presbyterian | 40.58 |
212 | SE Missouri St | 39.82 |
213 | Columbia | 39.77 |
214 | Idaho St | 39.15 |
215 | Sacred Heart | 38.43 |
216 | Jackson St | 38.09 |
217 | Austin Peay | 37.73 |
218 | Tennessee Tech | 36.77 |
219 | Robert Morris | 35.55 |
220 | Bryant | 35.33 |
221 | Alabama A&M | 34.96 |
222 | Georgetown DC | 33.63 |
223 | Dartmouth | 33.57 |
224 | North Carolina Central | 33.09 |
225 | Butler | 32.17 |
226 | Morehead St | 31.61 |
227 | Drake | 31.31 |
228 | Duquesne | 30.78 |
229 | Winston-Salem St | 30.63 |
230 | Marist | 30.26 |
231 | Alabama St | 29.86 |
232 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 29.06 |
233 | Davidson | 28.14 |
234 | Indiana St | 27.79 |
235 | Alcorn St | 26.39 |
236 | North Carolina A&T | 25.75 |
237 | Wagner | 25.35 |
238 | Howard | 24.44 |
239 | Savannah St | 22.38 |
240 | Texas Southern | 21.39 |
241 | Valparaiso | 20.00 |
242 | Mississippi Valley St | 18.54 |
243 | Iona | 17.15 |
244 | St Francis PA | 17.08 |
245 | Campbell | 5.46 |