Ratings 11/30/02  
Ratings (November 30)

For most teams, it is (as they say) all over but the shouting. But there does seem to be an unusual amount of shouting. What is this year's BCS outrage? (The most popular pick is Iowa being left out of the Rose Bowl.) If Miami loses, who replaces them? (The idea that it might be - gasp - Miami has been raised, although mostly as a sign of how messed up the system is.) Who is being unfairly treated by the bowls? (Your turn, Virginia fans.) Whose coach needs to be fired? (C'mon, Aggies, how can you fire someone named RC Slocum?) The ratings here are based only on season-long numbers, but that perspective is an interesting one to note as we argue about the bowls.

So, how big of an injustice is it if Iowa is left out of the Rose Bowl? Certainly, it's traditional to have a Pac 10 - Big 10 matchup. Ohio State going to the Fiesta Bowl removes the guarantee of that matchup, and unless UCLA beats Washington State Saturday the at-large BCS picks will go to other bowls. However, the computer only has Iowa #7 so the computer doesn't think that Iowa being left out would be nearly as bad as, say, Southern Cal being left out. Both could happen since Notre Dame will probably get a BCS bid; and that is where the computer really disagrees with what will happen. And, anyway, why isn't anyone concerned about Kansas State getting left out (again)?

What happens if Miami loses to Virginia Tech? I suspect that Miami would be #2 and still in the Fiesta Bowl, but it may not be a valid question for long in balmy Miami.

Virginia is mad because in spite of tieing for second in the ACC they're getting stuck in the ACC 5/6 slot in the bowls. NC State, Maryland and Clemson were chosen ahead of the Hoos by the bowl Grinches, and no Christmas singing can help. The bowls, I suspect, like naming 10-3 teams instead of 8-5 teams. And the computer supports the choice of State and Maryland ahead of Virginia. As for Clemson, here are some numbers: Virginia 6-2 in the ACC to Clemson's 4-4, Virginia won the matchup 22-17, Virginia is 8-5 overall to Clemson's 7-5, Virginia has a computer rating of 51 to Clemson's 49, Clemson brings 30,000 fans to Virginia's 2000. Add them all up and Clemson wins the Tangerine Bowl 30,077 to 2,087. Adding to Virginia's misery is the possibility that Tech will bump them from the Retread Bowl in Charlotte out to Seattle. For awhile, the talk was that Tech would get the #3 Big East bid over Pittsburgh; you can check the computer ratings for some insight into the logic of this choice.

Three conference championships highlights this week's games. The Washington State - UCLA game has major BCS implications, and Army-Navy get together for the best battle of 1-10 teams you can get. The following predictions are straight from the ratings, with 4 points added for the home team.

Oklahoma over Colorado by 4
Georgia over Arkansas by 5
Toledo over Marshall by 4
UCLA over Wash. State by 2
Navy over Army by 5
Miami over Virginia Tech by 15

1 Southern Cal 68.60
2 Miami 65.80
3 Kansas State 63.51
4 Ohio State 63.31
5 Oklahoma 62.41
6 Georgia 62.15
7 Iowa 61.17
8 Texas 60.98
9 Penn State 59.20
10 Alabama 58.91
11 Florida State 58.23
12 Colorado 58.14
13 Michigan 58.11
14 Notre Dame 57.97
15 Wash State 57.47
16 Arkansas 56.72
17 UCLA 55.59
18 Maryland 55.12
19 Auburn 54.95
20 Oregon St 54.82
21 Florida 54.44
22 Virginia Tech 54.37
23 West Virginia 53.99
24 Boise 53.63
25 NC State 53.29
26 California 53.03
27 Texas Tech 52.70
28 Tennessee 52.62
29 LSU 52.56
30 Washington 52.02
31 South Florida 51.80
32 Pittsburgh 51.43
33 Colorado St 51.04
34 Virginia 50.94
35 Boston College 50.62
36 Arizona St 49.97
37 Iowa State 49.80
38 Wisconsin 49.67
39 Oregon 49.38
40 Clemson 48.57
41 Georgia Tech 48.47
42 Oklahoma St 48.05
43 Kentucky 47.86
44 Nebraska 47.69
45 Toledo 47.58
46 TCU 47.19
47 Purdue 47.07
48 Texas A&M 46.90
49 Mississippi 45.94
50 Air Force 45.94
51 Bowling Green 45.57
52 Minnesota 45.49
53 Missouri 44.98
54 Cincinnati 44.98
55 Wake Forest 44.56
56 Hawaii 44.18
57 Louisville 44.12
58 S Carolina 44.06
59 Illinois 44.00
60 Marshall 43.57
61 North Ill 43.24
62 Miami O 43.07
63 Southern Miss 42.66
64 North Texas 41.25
65 UCF 40.68
66 Fresno 40.27
67 Arizona 39.96
68 UConn 39.53
69 Tulane 38.83
70 Stanford 38.79
71 Utah 38.68
72 New Mexico 38.63
73 Michigan St 38.53
74 Syracuse 37.85
75 Temple 37.61
76 NM State 37.12
77 North Carolina 35.98
78 UNLV 35.83
79 Miss State 35.60
80 East Carolina 34.92
81 BYU 34.89
82 San Diego St 34.45
83 Nevada 34.43
84 San Jose 34.09
85 Ball State 34.09
86 Houston 33.84
87 Vanderbilt 33.70
88 Western Mich 33.07
89 UAB 32.21
90 Duke 31.93
91 Indiana 31.83
92 La Tech 31.66
93 Northwestern 31.58
94 Memphis 31.15
95 Mid Tenn 30.28
96 Akron 30.17
97 Baylor 29.96
98 Utah State 29.90
99 Troy State 29.90
100 Ohio 29.21
101 Arkansas St 28.36
102 Rice 28.00
103 Central Mich 27.72
104 Wyoming 27.65
105 La-Lafayette 26.83
106 Kansas 25.81
107 Rutgers 25.47
108 Idaho 25.10
109 Navy 23.72
110 La-Monroe 23.67
111 SMU 23.45
112 Kent State 22.90
113 Eastern Mich 20.02
114 Tulsa 18.90
115 UTEP 18.61
116 Army 18.25
117 Buffalo 17.20