Ratings 12/01  
Ratings (December 1)

Welcome to the first By the Numbers of 2001! The warm weather feels about right, but the December date is odd. The cancelled games from the 9/11 disaster ruined the schedule I had entered into the computer in early fall, so it wasn't until this weekend's make-up games that I could run the program.

Fortunately, there's still a good controversy for me to join: who gets to play Miami for the national championship? You may be surprised to see that the computer doesn't think that much of Tennessee. The culprit is not so much strength of schedule (although cupcakes like Notre Dame don't help) as it is winning margin. The Vols win by 11 per game, where Florida wins by 30, Nebraska by 24 and Miami by 34. A couple of teams of note: BYU is 11th, in spite of a 12-0 record, and Kansas State is 16th with a 6-5 record. This is strength of schedule: K-State lost to Oklahoma, Colorado, Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Nebraska. And, while BYU plays a 13-game schedule, it's not that tough. If this program were being used to choose the top two, this would be an interesting week. Can Tennessee beat LSU by enough to make the top two? (No) Since Florida played both LSU and Tennessee, will Florida's rating change as a result of the SEC championship? (Yes; it should go up, regardless of which team wins)

Here are predictions for this week's games. Home team gets 4 points extra:

Tennessee by 9 over LSU
BYU by 11 over Hawaii
Southern Miss by 12 over TCU


1 Miami 73.21
2 Florida 67.85
3 Nebraska 67.81
4 Texas 66.46
5 Tennessee 66.07
6 Oregon 65.68
7 Colorado 64.81
8 Washington State 63.87
9 Oklahoma 63.74
10 Stanford 63.06
11 BYU 62.44
12 Illinois 62.11
13 UCLA 60.18
14 Michigan 59.73
15 Maryland 59.37
16 Kansas State 59.01
17 Fresno State 58.26
18 Washington 57.48
19 Syracuse 57.44
20 LSU 57.27
21 Florida State 56.91
22 Virginia Tech 56.82
23 Southern Cal 56.46
24 Texas Tech 56.38
25 South Carolina 56.33
26 Georgia 55.81
27 Ohio State 54.56
28 Iowa 53.92
29 Texas A&M 53.63
30 Alabama 53.58
31 Arkansas 53.13
32 Utah 53.01
33 North Carolina 52.96
34 Boston College 52.67
35 Iowa State 52.62
36 Auburn 52.59
37 Louisville 51.99
38 NC State 51.14
39 Notre Dame 50.76
40 Penn State 50.72
41 Georgia Tech 50.41
42 Michigan State 50.34
43 Indiana 49.69
44 Marshall 49.65
45 Purdue 49.61
46 Oregon State 49.48
47 Bowling Green 48.96
48 Ole Miss 48.87
49 Boise State 48.42
50 Colorado State 48.31
51 Wisconsin 47.81
52 Pittsburgh 47.81
53 Arizona State 47.68
54 Hawaii 47.54
55 Clemson 47.06
56 Toledo 47.01
57 Southern Miss 46.62
58 Louisiana Tech 46.51
59 Arizona 45.84
60 New Mexico 45.55
61 Oklahoma State 45.49
62 Wake Forest 44.94
63 East Carolina 44.26
64 Miami 44.04
65 Central Florida 43.87
66 Missouri 43.72
67 South Florida 43.57
68 Minnesota 43.54
69 Mississippi State 43.25
70 Northwestern 42.89
71 Virginia 42.23
72 Rice 42.17
73 UNLV 42.03
74 Middle Tennessee 41.78
75 Air Force 41.54
76 West Virginia 41.51
77 UAB 40.92
78 Cincinnati 40.76
79 Troy State 40.69
80 Northern Illinois 40.09
81 Memphis 40.05
82 Kansas 39.91
83 Kentucky 39.73
84 Western Michigan 38.53
85 TCU 38.44
86 Kent State 38.19
87 Baylor 37.51
88 California 37.43
89 Temple 37.41
90 Utah State 36.11
91 SMU 35.56
92 North Texas 35.42
93 San Diego State 35.39
94 San Jose State 34.44
95 Akron 34.13
96 Vanderbilt 33.97
97 Nevada 33.89
98 Ball State 33.17
99 New Mexico State 32.21
100 Ohio 31.07
101 Wyoming 30.75
102 Tulane 30.16
103 Central Michigan 27.71
104 Army 25.91
105 Duke 25.51
106 UTEP 25.13
107 Rutgers 25.11
108 Buffalo 24.77
109 Tulsa 24.32
110 Houston 23.99
111 La-Lafayette 23.39
112 Navy 21.87
113 Idaho 20.52
114 Connecticut 20.37
115 La-Monroe 19.90
116 Eastern Michigan 19.78
117 Arkansas State 18.13